我国马铃薯区域格局演变及其影响因素分析

Analysis of the evolution of potato regional pattern in China and its influencing factors

关键词:  马铃薯  区域格局  演变  影响因素

Key words:  potato: regional pattern  evolution  influencing factors

摘要:

为研究我国马铃薯区域格局演变趋势，优化马铃薯生产区域布局，采用空间分析方法和县级统计数据，定量分析我国1990—2016年马铃薯区域格局及其演变趋势；并基于2011—2018年省级面板数据，实证研究马铃薯区域格局演变的主要影响因素。结果表明:1)我国马铃薯种植集中分布在4 大热点区域:以甘肃南部为核心的西北地区，以云贵川渝为核心的西南地区，以内蒙古中部为核心的华北地区和以黑龙江为核心的东北地区，空间分布格局整体由“单核心+外围小中心”向“双核心+外围小中心”演变；2)马铃薯空间格局表现出明显的集聚特征，集聚程度先减后增，在空间上表现为从东北和华北向西北和西南地区集聚；3)马铃薯区域格局演变主要受气候、劳动力投入和技术水平等要素的影响，劳动力投入的影响大于其他因素。短期内各影响因素的影响程度会因时间和空间差异而有所不同，但差异较小。

Abstract:

In order to study the evolution trend of the regional pattern of potatoes and optimize the regional layout of potato production, the spatial statistical analysis methods and county-level statistical data are used to quantitatively analyze the potato regional pattern and its evolution trend in China from 1990 to 2016. Based on the panel data of 14 provinces from 2011 to 2018, this study empirically studies the influencing factors of the evolution of potato regional pattern. The results show that: 1)Potato cultivation is concentrated in four hotspot areas. The northwestern area with southern Gansu as the core, the southwestern area with Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Chongqing as the core, the north China area with the central Inner Mongolia as the core, and the northeast area with Heilongjiang as the core. The overall spatial distribution pattern has transferred from “single core+peripheral small center” to “dual core+peripheral small center”; 2)The spatial pattern of potato planting shows obvious agglomeration characteristics. The degree of agglomeration first decreases and then increases, and it is spatially manifested as agglomeration from the northeast and north of China to northwest and southwest regions; 3)The evolution of potato regional pattern is mainly affected by factors such as climate, labor input and technical level. The impact of labor input is greater than other factors. In conclusion, the degree of influence of each influencing factor varies due to time and space differences, but the difference is relatively small.