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汇率变化对我国农业产业的影响——基于农业部门局部均衡模型
王静怡1, 张玉梅1,2, 陈志钢3,2
1.中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所, 北京 100081;2.国际食物政策研究所, 北京 100081;3.浙江大学 中国农村发展研究院, 杭州 310085
摘要:
为研究汇率浮动与中国农产品市场波动之间的关系,采用全球农产品市场局部均衡模型,设定5种货币贬值和升值的情景方案,通过静态模拟方法,评估不同货币的汇率变化对中国农业产业的影响。结果显示,人民币贬值时,进口商品变的更加昂贵,进口减少,国内产品的需求增加,刺激国内产出增加。从具体产品来看,人民币贬值对稻谷、小麦、玉米、牛肉、猪肉和奶粉产量的影响较大。当人民币升值,中国农业受到的影响与贬值情况相反。主要农业贸易伙伴国货币汇率变动则首先影响该国产品的进出口量,进而影响产品的世界价格,再通过进出口将价格传导到中国,最终引起中国相关产品的生产、消费和贸易量的变动。中国受到较大影响的是从这些国家进口份额较大的产品,其中欧元、澳元、新西兰元和巴西雷亚尔汇率变动将主要引起中国牛肉、猪肉、奶粉、小麦和大豆进口量和产量的变化。
关键词:  汇率  农业  局部均衡模型  情景模拟
DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2019.07.22
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(71761147004);农业部软科学项目(201704);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2018-AⅡ、CAAS-XTCX2018020-1)
Impacts of exchange rate change on China's agricultural sector: Base on agricultural partial equilibrium model
WANG Jingyi1, ZHANG Yumei1,2, CHEN Zhigang3,2
1.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2.International Food Policy Research Institute, Beijing 100081, China;3.China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058
Abstract:
Based on the global agricultural partial equilibrium model,the study designed different currencies appreciation and depreciation scenarios to simulate the impacts of exchange rate fluctuation on China's agriculture.The results show that:If RMB were depreciated,the imported goods would become more expensive resulting in the decrease of import;However,the domestic demand and production would increase.Specifically,rice,wheat,maize,beef,pork and milk powder would be greatly affected by RMB depreciation.If RMB were appreciated,the situation would be the opposite.The currencies changes of major agricultural trading partners would mainly result in the changes of export and import in their countries,and generate impacts on world prices.And the impact would be transmitted into China through import and export prices and finally lead to the changes of production,consumption and trade of related products in China.The products with large import share would be affected mostly.The fluctuations of Euro,Australian dollar,New Zealand dollar and Brazil Real among others would mostly affect China's import and the production of beef,pork,powder milk and soybean,respectively.
Key words:  exchange rate  agriculture  partial equilibrium model  simulation
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