| 摘要: |
| 为准确测算现有农业生产科技水平下的中国粮食生产能力，以2012—2016年最新粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量为基础，构建测度模型，估算中国(不包括香港和澳门特别行政区及台湾省)耕地粮食的育种生产能力，测算中国耕地粮食产量差(增产潜力)及生产能力开发程度，并分析省际差异规律。结果表明:1)中国现有耕地粮食生产能力是8.46×108 t，实际粮食产量是5.48×108 t，差值达2.98×108 t，占粮食实际产量的54.38%，耕地生产能力开发率为0.63，说明中国耕地粮食潜力有待进一步挖掘。2)中国耕地粮食总生产能力和潜力较大的省市自治区是:黑龙江省、河南省、山东省、河北省、吉林省、安徽省、内蒙古自治区、江苏省、湖南省、四川省、辽宁省、湖北省、云南省和江西省，应作为未来耕地保护和农田建设的重点对象，可通过土地整治和栽培技术等手段，提高耕地质量。3)同时，开发耕地生产潜力需因地制宜，实现提高粮食产量和保护生态的平衡。在江西省、福建省和浙江省，建议加大农田基础设施建设，提高耕地生产能力；在河北省，需提高水资源利用率，实现节水保粮；在宁夏回族自治区、甘肃省和陕西省，需协调农业-能源-水资源关系，实现绿色可持续发展；在广西壮族自治区、贵州省和云南省，可以利用气候优势，在缓坡丘陵区种植茶树、花卉，发展特色农业；在内蒙古自治区、西藏自治区和青海省，不建议过度开发粮食生产潜力。 |
| 关键词: 中国 生产能力 审定品种区域试验产量 实际产量 产量差 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2020.01.02 |
| 投稿时间：2019-03-09 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41801210,41471017)；中国博士后科学基金(2019T120959,2018M631214)；陕西省社会科学基金(2018S14)；陕西省博士后科学基金(2018BSHEDZZ82)；陕西省软科学研究计划(2018KRM003) |
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| Grain productivity potential of cultivated land and yield gap analysis in China |
|
GAO Chan1,ZHANG Bangbang2,3*,ZHAO Minjuan2,3,YANG Xiaoliu1*
|
| (1.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;2.College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China;3.Applied Economics Research Center, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to precisely estimate the production capacity under the latest scientific and technological level, this study builds a measurement model based on the regional test yield of the latest approved varieties of food crops from 2012 to 2016, estimates the breeding production capacity of cultivated land grain in China(excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan in this study), measures the difference in cultivated land grain yield(yield increase potential)and the development degree of production capacity in China and analyzes the law of inter-provincial differences. The results are as follows: 1)The grain production capacity of cultivated land in China is 8. 46×108 t, the actual output is 5. 48×108 t, the difference is 2. 98×108 t, accounting for 54. 38% of the actual grain production, and the development rate of cultivated land production capacity is 0. 63, which shows that the potential of cultivated land in China can be further developed. 2)China's provinces and cities(such as Heilongjiang Province, Henan Province, Shandong Province, Hebei Province, Jilin Province, Anhui Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Jiangsu Province, Hunan Province, Sichuan Province, Liaoning Province, Hubei Province, Yunnan Province, and Jiangxi Province)with large total cultivated land grain production capacity and potential should be taken as key targets for future cultivated land protection and construction, and the quality of cultivated land can be improved through land improvement and cultivation techniques. 3)To develop the productive potential of cultivated land, it is necessary to adjust measures to local conditions so as to realize the balance between increasing grain output and protecting ecology. In Jiangxi Province, Fujian Province and Zhejiang Province, it is suggested to increase the construction of farmland infrastructure and improve the productivity of farmland. In Hebei Province, it is necessary to improve the utilization rate of water resources and to save water and keep grain. In Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Gansu Province and Shaanxi Province, it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between agriculture, energy and water resources in order to realize green and sustainable development. In Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guizhou Province and Yunnan Province, tea trees and flowers can be planted in gentle slope hilly areas to develop characteristic agriculture by taking advantage of the climate. In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Tibet Autonomous Region and Qinghai Province, over-exploitation of grain production potential is not recommended. |
| Key words: China potential grain productivity regional test yield of certificated grain cultivars real productivity yield gap |
