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| 紫茎泽兰对我国花生产业造成的潜在经济损失评估 |
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方焱1, 秦萌2, 李志红3, 秦誉嘉3, 王聪3, 赵谈3, 吴志刚4
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| (1.天津出入境检验检疫局, 天津 300461;2.全国农业技术推广服务中心, 北京 100125;3.中国农业大学 农学与生物技术学院, 北京 100193;4.西藏大学农牧学院, 西藏 林芝 860000) |
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| 摘要: |
| 为了明确紫茎泽兰对我国在生产业可能造成的直接影响,本研究在收集、分析国内外相关资料的基础上,采用@RISK软件和随机模拟的方法,建立了紫茎泽兰对我国花生产业造成的潜在经济损失评估模型,从紫茎泽兰可能造成的直接经济损失和防治费用 2 个方面进行了评估。评估结果显示,紫茎泽兰对我国花生产业造成的潜在经济损失总值可达46.49~582.39亿元,花生产业潜在经济损失的损失率在11.25%~59.19%。 |
| 关键词: 紫茎泽兰 花生 @RISK 经济损失 预测 有害生物风险分析 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2015.06.19 |
| 投稿时间：2015-04-29 |
| 基金项目:农业部外来入侵生物防治项目(U071,U337) |
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| Potential economic impact of Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) on peanut industry in China |
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FANG Yan1, QIN Meng2, LI Zhi-hong3, QIN Yu-jia3, WANG Cong3, ZHAO Tan3, WU Zhi-gang4
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| (1.Tianjin Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau, Tianjin 300461, China;2.National Agro-technical Extension and Service Center, Beijing 100125, China;3.College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;4.Agricultural and Animal Husbandry College of Tibet University, Linzhi 860000, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to confirm the direct economic losses caused by Ageratina adenophora on peanut industry in China,In this study,we collected and analyzed data from articles.By combining the @RISK software and the stochastic simulation method,the model of the potential economic impact on peanut industry caused by A.adenophora was built,the direct economic losses and the cost of prevention and control caused by A.adenophora in China were estimated.The results showed that the estimated total economic cost was 4.649-58.239 billion Yuan and the potential loss rate of peanut industry was estimated to be 11.25%-59.19%. |
| Key words: Ageratina adenophora peanut @RISK economic losses forecast pest risk analysis |
