| 摘要: |
| 关注自由贸易区（FTA）贸易效应的事后评估，尝试构建贸易效应测算和分解的完整分析框架，基于基础引力模型，从变量引入、贸易效应分解和模型应用3个角度探讨引力模型用于自贸区贸易效应测算时存在的问题和解决方案。研究结果表明：包含国家组、进口国和出口国年度的三维固定效应模型可以控制FTA的内生性；将FTA在时间维度上进行扩展，可以逐年动态反映自贸区的贸易效应；基于简化假定，模型通过压缩维度可以用于分析不同情形下的贸易效应，有效性得到了验证。 |
| 关键词: 自由贸易区 贸易创造 贸易转移 测度方法 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2014.03.37 |
| 投稿时间：2013-08-30 |
| 基金项目:2012年农业国际交流与合作项目；中国农业大学研究生科研创新专项（2012YJ138） |
|
| Measures of FTA trade effects |
|
YUAN Rui-ling, TIAN Zhi-hong
|
| (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The study focused on the assessment of ex-post trade effect of FTA, and tried to build a complete analytical framework to measure and decompose the trade effect.Based on the basic gravity model, from the perspective of variables introduced, trade effect decomposition and model application, it discussed the existed problems and solutions of the gravity model when used to FTA trade effect measurement.The research results showed that:the three-way fixed effect model which contained country pair, importer-year and exporter-year could control the endogenesis of FTA efficiently;the extension of FTA dummy variable in time dimension could dynamically reflects the FTA yearly trade effects;based on the simplified assumptions, the model could be used for the analysis of trade effects under different situations by compressing dimensions, and the feasibility had been verified. |
| Key words: free trade agreement trade creation trade diversion measures |
