| 摘要: |
| 设计了中国关税与进口额预测软件系统，它具有关税及进口量的年度预测，月度高频预测，关税调控效果分析和高低频模型结合等５个主要功能，旨在为有关管理部门提供定量决策支持，认为：专用的预测决策支持系统设计首先要保证重要功能；适用模型和计算方法须由设计者明确，给用户的选择应集中外生可调控变量；软件本身应具备对数据维护方式的适应能力。 |
| 关键词: 关税税收 进口量 预测系统 软件 设计 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金 |
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| Design and Realization of Chinese Tariff Revenue and Import Forecasting Software System |
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| Abstract: |
| The Chinese tariff revenue and import forecasting software system including fivemain functions: the yearly tariff revenue and import forecasting, the monthly dataforecasting; the tariff rate adjusting effects analyzing, as well as the long-run and short-runforecasting models combining, etc., is designed to give the quantitative decision-makingsupports to the government. The design of the forecasting decision-making support systemfor special use must assure the main functions. The applicable models and the dataprocessing methods ought to be managed by the designer. The choices for user willconcentrate on the controllable variables. The software must be adaptable to the way of datamanagement. |
| Key words: tariff revenue,import amount,forecasting system |
