山区土地利用变化强度与稳定性诊断研究——以福建省德化县为例

Diagnostic study on the intensity and stability of land use changes in mountainous area

关键词:  山区  土地利用变化强度  土地利用稳定性  耕地进出平衡  德化县

Key words:  mountainous area  land use change intensity  land use stability  cultivated land balance of entry and exit  Dehua County

摘要:

为剖析山区土地利用变化特征，合理利用和保护土地资源，本研究以高城镇化率山区福建省德化县为例，利用遥感解译与多层面土地利用变化强度分析，多尺度识别1986年、2001年、2020年3个时期土地利用变化强度与稳定性，探索变化规律及驱动机理。结果表明：1）城镇化中前期（1986—2001年）的土地利用总变化强度大于中后期（2001—2020年），且从谷地到低山再到中山变化强度逐渐减小。2）建设用地、水域、裸地、草地的变化较为活跃，耕地的转出具有活跃性而转入具有惰性，林地的变化呈现相对稳定状态，且各地类转入转出强度会受地形影响。3）“草地-林地”转换过程表现为稳定且系统的倾向性转换；建设用地占用耕地、裸地、水域表现为系统的倾向性；转移面积大的土地变化模式并非一定表现为稳定性或系统性的变化；“林地-建设用地”、“草地-林地”等土地转换模式会受到地形影响。4）城镇化进程与地区发展策略是影响土地利用变化倾向与速度的关键因素。因此，未来山区耕地布局需要顺应社会发展和人口分布，耕地进出平衡应秉持有破有立的辩证思维，而城乡建设用地增减挂钩则应树立“人地挂钩”的用地理念。

Abstract:

In order to analyze the characteristics of land use change in mountainous areas， rational use and protection of land resources. In this study， Dehua County of Fujian Province， an area with high urbanization in the mountainous region， is taken as an example. The remote sensing interpretation technology and multi-level land use change intensity analysis are adopted to identify the intensity and stability of land use changes in 1986， 2001， and 2020， and explore their changing patterns and driving mechanisms. The results show that： 1） The overall change intensity of land use in the early stage of urbanisation （1986—2001） is greater than that in the middle and late stage （2001—2017）， and the change intensity of land use from valleys to low mountains to Zhongshan gradually decreases. 2） The changes in construction land， waters， bare land and grass are relatively active during the study period， while the changes in forest land remain relatively stable. The transfer of cultivated land shows both activity and passivity， and the intensity of land type transfer is affected by topography. 3） The increase of woodland mainly comes from grassland. The conversion process of “grassland-forestland” is characterized by a stable and systematic tendency conversion model； the occupation of cultivated land， bare land and waters for construction land is systematic； and the land change model with a large transfer area is not necessarily characterized by stability or systematic change. Land conversion patterns such as “forest land-construction land” and “grassland-forest land” are affected by topography. 4） The urbanization process and development strategy are the key factors affecting the scale and speed of land use change. The study suggests that in the future， the layout of arable land in mountainous areas needs to conform to social development and population distribution. The balance of the entry and exit of arable land should adhere to a broken dialectical thinking， while the linkage of urban and rural construction land should establish the concept of “human-land linkage”.