中国蔬菜种植化肥施用强度时空演变及影响因素

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity of vegetable planting in China

关键词:  化肥施用强度  时空演变  空间杜宾模型

Key words:  fertilizer application intensity  spatio-temporal evolution  spatial Doberman model

摘要:

为探究现阶段中国蔬菜种植中的化肥施用情况，利用2009—2018年中国省级面板数据(统计数据未含港、澳、台地区，下同)分析了蔬菜化肥施用强度的时空演变特征及空间相关性，构建个体固定效应下的空间杜宾模型分析了蔬菜化肥施用强度的影响因素及其空间溢出效应。结果表明:在时间上，蔬菜化肥施用强度总体呈现基本平稳后波动上升的变化趋势，蔬菜种植中依然存在较大的化肥减量潜力；在空间布局上，各省份蔬菜化肥施用强度存在显著的空间自相关性，呈现出一定程度的空间集聚特征。东南沿海省份的蔬菜化肥施用强度总体高于内陆省份，华北地区省份主要表现为“高—高”集聚特征，少量东南沿海省份表现为“低—低”集聚特征；农村居民人均收入、蔬菜规模化经营程度及农业现代化水平对蔬菜化肥施用强度有显著的负向影响；非农业劳动力占比对蔬菜化肥施用强度有显著的正向影响；农村居民人均收入、蔬菜规模化经营程度和非农业劳动力占比具有显著的空间溢出效应。

Abstract:

In order to explore the current situation of fertilizer application in vegetable planting in China, using China's provincial panel data from 2009 to 2018(The data do not include those of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions. The same below), the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and spatial correlation of vegetable fertilizer application intensity were analyzed. The spatial Doberman model under individual fixed effects was constructed to explore the Influencing factors of vegetable fertilizer application intensity and its spatial spillover effects. The results show that: From the aspect of time, the application intensity of vegetable fertilizers generally shows a stable trend and then fluctuates upward. There is still a large potential of fertilizer reduction in vegetable planting; From the aspect of spatial layout, there is significant correlation of space with vegetable fertilizer application intensities in various provinces. The results of auto-correlation, shows a certain degree of spatial agglomeration characteristics. The intensity of vegetable fertilizer application in the southeast coastal provinces is generally higher than that in the inland provinces. The provinces in North China are mainly characterized by “high-high” agglomeration, and a small number of southeast coastal provinces are characterized by “low-low” agglomeration; rural residents' per capita income and vegetable scale. The degree of chemical management and the level of agricultural modernization have a significant negative impact on the intensity of vegetable fertilizer application. The proportion of non-agricultural labor has a significant positive impact on the intensity of vegetable fertilizer application and the per capita income of rural residents, degree of large-scale vegetable management and non-agricultural labor all display significant spatial spillover effect.