比较优势理论视角下粮食生产与水资源空间错配研究

Research on the Spatial Mismatch of Food Production and Water Resources from the Perspective of Comparative Advantage Theory

关键词:  粮食生产  比较优势  农业用水压力  农业用水效率  水资源承载力

Key words:  Food production  Comparative Advantage  Agricultural water pressure  Agricultural water efficiency  Water resources carrying capacity

摘要:

本研究基于资源禀赋与比较优势理论，揭示粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配的根源。先构建测算指标体系综合评价各地区水资源承载力；再评估粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配的程度；最终探究粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配的逻辑根源，并利用面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明:①从测算结果看，中国大陆31省2003—2018年的粮食生产与水资源空间分布存在错配，以东北区、黄淮海区、华南区和西北区（水资源承载力标准化指数与粮食播种面积标准化指数之差分别为-0.815、-0.552、0.590和0.471）错配较为严重。②从基准模型回归结果看，土地优势、劳动优势、资本优势对区域农业用水压力的正向推动作用超过水资源优势对区域农业用水压力的负向作用，使得粮食生产综合比较优势加大了区域农业用水压力，在类似的市场与政策环境下粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配的内在原因正是上述累加作用的结果；进一步研究发现，粮食生产比较优势对农业用水压力加剧作用存在时间滞后效应，但在农业用水压力极大和极小区域加剧作用并不明显。③从机制分析模型结果看，农业用水效率在粮食生产比较优势对农业用水压力的影响中具有负向调节作用，且分位数样本回归发现农业用水压力较高区域农业用水效率调节作用更大，表明较高的农业用水效率能够有效缓解区域粮食生产比较优势对粮食生产与水资源空间分布错配的影响，且在农业用水压力较高的区域缓解作用更加明显。因此，优化粮食生产与水资源空间匹配程度、加大粮食生产布局中水资源要素约束权重、进一步提升粮食生产用水效率，有利于保障粮食安全与水资源的可持续利用。

Abstract:

Based on the theory of comparative advantage, this research reveals the underlying reasons of the mismatch of the spatial distribution of food production and water resources. Our research constructs a water resources carrying capacity measurement index system and uses the entropy TOPSIS for comprehensive evaluation. By comparing the difference between the planting area of grain and the carrying capacity of water resources in various regions, we analyze the mismatch of the spatial distribution of grain production and water resources. And then this research explores the logical source of the mismatch of the spatial distribution of grain production and water resources, and uses panel data regression to empirically test the relation between resource comparative advantage and agricultural water pressure. The result shows that:(1) There is apparent mismatch of the spatial distribution of grain production and water resources in mainland China from 2003 to 2018.The mismatch is the most serious in Northeast, Huanghuaihai, South China and Northwest. The difference between the standardized index of water resources carrying capacity and the standardized index of grain sown area is -0.815, -0.552, 0.590 and 0.471 respectively. (2)The regression results of the benchmark model shows that the positive effects of land advantages, labor advantages, and capital advantages on regional agricultural water pressure exceed the negative effects of water resources advantages on regional agricultural water pressure. It makes the comprehensive comparative advantage of food production increase the pressure on regional agricultural water. The mismatch of the spatial distribution of food production and water resources is precisely the cumulative effects of resource comparative advantage. Simultaneously, We also found that the comparative advantage of food production needs a certain period of transmission to significantly increase the pressure on regional agricultural water, which has a certain time lag effect.(3) This study also found that agricultural water efficiency plays an important moderating role in the influence of the comparative advantage of food production on agricultural water pressure, which shows that agricultural water efficiency can alleviate the mismatch of spatial distribution of food production and water resources, and the mitigation effect is better in the water shortage region. Therefore, optimizing the spatial matching degree of grain production and water resources, increasing the weight of water resources in the grain production layout, and further improving the efficiency of grain production and water use are conducive to ensuring food security and sustainable use of water resources.