气候变暖对西藏林芝地区作物生产的影响
投稿时间:2020-09-10    点此下载全文
引用本文:次仁央金,吴尧,陈阜,卓嘎,雷永登.气候变暖对西藏林芝地区作物生产的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2021,26(8):33-42
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作者单位E-mail
次仁央金 中国农业大学 农学院, 北京 100193
西藏农牧学院 植物科学学院, 西藏 林芝 860000 
390065855@qq.com 
吴尧 中国农业大学 农学院, 北京 100193  
陈阜 中国农业大学 农学院, 北京 100193  
卓嘎 西藏农牧学院 植物科学学院, 西藏 林芝 860000  
雷永登 中国农业大学 农学院, 北京 100193 leiyd@cau.edu.cn 
基金项目:西藏自治区科技厅重点科技计划(2015ZD-15-36)
中文摘要:为揭示气候变化对林芝地区主要作物生产的影响,以西藏自治区林芝地区为研究区,选择冬小麦、玉米、春青稞和春油菜4种主要农作物,通过划分喜温和喜凉作物不同生长季,分析1981—2018年气候变化对作物物候期、种植结构及产量变化的影响特征。结果显示:1)林芝地区作物生长季气温呈极显著的增暖趋势,生长季气温以0.35 ℃/10年的速率显著增加,且喜凉作物生长季增温更加显著;秋播作物、小春作物和大春作物生长季的年平均气温分别以0.34、0.30和0.26 ℃/10年的速率显著(P<0.05)升高;作物生长季年平均降水量呈现较大的波动性特征。2)受气候变暖影响,林芝地区喜凉作物和喜温作物物候期均呈延长趋势,并且喜凉作物的物候期延长趋势较喜温作物显著,以5.43~11.7 d/10年的速率延长。3)林芝地区作物结构变化表现为喜温作物种植面积增加,传统喜凉麦类作物面积减少;不同作物单产变化较为复杂,总体表现为喜温作物玉米单产增加,春青稞和冬小麦等喜凉作物单产有所降低。气候变暖背景下,林芝地区4种主要作物生长季增温显著,物候期延长显著,伴随喜温作物面积和产量增加,喜凉作物种植面积呈萎缩趋势。未来应积极调整优化种植结构,充分利用当地气候和土地资源,稳定作物生产的同时注意防范气候波动引起的自然灾害风险。
中文关键词:气候变暖  作物生产  物候期  种植结构  西藏林芝
 
Impacts of climate warming on crop production in Nyingchi, Tibet
Abstract:In order to reveal the impact of climate change on the production of major crops in Nyingchi region, Nyingchi region of Tibet was taken as a case study, and the regional major crops including winter wheat, corn, spring barley, and spring rapeseed were selected. Thermophilic and chimonophilous crops were distinguished by growing seasons, and the impacts of climate change on the regional crop phenology, planting structure, and crop production from 1981 to 2018 were analyzed. The results indicated that: 1)The Nyingchi region showed a notable warming trend during the growing season, and the annual average temperature in the growing season increased significantly at the rate of 0. 35 ℃/10 year. The temperature increase in the growing season of chimonophilous crops was more obvious. The annual average temperature during the growing seasons of autumn-sown crops, early spring-sown crops, and late spring-sown crops increased at the rates of 0. 34, 0. 30 and 0. 26 ℃/10 year, respectively. The annual precipitation in the crop growth season showed a big variation. 2)Affected by climate warming, the phenological periods of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in Nyingchi region were prolonged, and the growing seasons of chimonophilous crops were longer than that of thermophilic crops, at the rate of 5. 43 to 11. 7 d/10 year. 3)The planted areas of thermophilic crops increased, while the planted areas of some traditional chimonophilous crops showed a significant decrease trend. There was a large variation in different crop yield, with an increase in corn yield and a decrease in spring barley yield. Under the warming climate, temperature during the crop growing season increased significantly, and the phenological periods were prolonged. With the increases in the area and yield of thermophilic crops, the planted area of chimonophilous crops has decreased. In the future, we should actively adjust and optimize regional cropping system to make the full use of local climatic and land resources and prevent natural disaster risks caused by climatic fluctuations.
keywords:climate warming  crop production  phenological period  planting structure  Nyingchi region of Tibet
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