我国省域玉米生产比较优势及其影响因素——基于20个玉米主产区2008—2017年面板数据实证

Comparative advantages of maize production and its determining factors across major maize producing regions: Empirical analyses based on the panel data of 20 major maize producing regions during the year 2008-2017

关键词:  玉米生产  地区比较优势  综合比较优势指数法  灰色系统评估法

Key words:  maize production  comparative advantage  aggregated advantage index  grey system evaluation

摘要:

针对2015年以来我国玉米行业出现的供大于求的市场结构问题，采用综合比较优势法和灰色系统评估法对我国20个玉米主产区2008—2017年的生产比较优势进行测度，并运用逻辑回归模型和有序逻辑回归模型对影响比较优势的因素进行分析。结果表明:1)河北省、内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省具有稳定的玉米生产综合比较优势，在生产成本和产业利润2方面的优势尤为突出；2)显著影响省域比较优势的正向因素为农用柴油使用量、耕地灌溉面积和农村教育经费等，负向因素为农用化肥施用量、居民人均消费水平和第一产业GDP占比等。政府需根据生产比较优势调整布局，科学优化生产要素投入，提高生产和精深加工的匹配，促进产业链各环节的协同发展。

Abstract:

The problem that the maize supply has exceeded demand since 2015, leads to serious development problems in the industry. Based on the panel data of 20 major maize producing regions during the year 2008-2017, this study evaluates the comparative advantages of corn planting in various regions, and then examines their determining factors. The results indicate that: 1)Hebei Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and Heilongjiang Province have comprehensive comparative advantages of maize planting, and their advantages in production cost and industrial profit are particularly prominent; 2)The comparative advantages of maize planning among regions are positively determined by agricultural diesel use, cultivated land irrigation area, and rural education investment, and negatively determined by agricultural chemical fertilizer usage, per capita consumption level of residents, and proportion of agricultural GDP. This study provides valuable insights on how to promote the development of maize industry. It is suggested to adjust the regional maize planting layout based on the comparative advantages, scientifically optimize the production inputs, and improve the matching of planting, production, and intensive processing in order to enhance the entire maize industrial system.