RCP情景下河南省夏玉米发育期变化及可调节热量资源估算
投稿时间:2019-10-15    点此下载全文
引用本文:李树岩,潘学标,王靖.RCP情景下河南省夏玉米发育期变化及可调节热量资源估算[J].中国农业大学学报,2020,25(6):35-45
摘要点击次数: 81
全文下载次数: 65
作者单位E-mail
李树岩 中国气象局 河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室, 郑州 450003
河南省气象科学研究所, 郑州 450003 
lsy_126com@126.com 
潘学标 中国农业大学 资源与环境学院, 北京 100193  
王靖 中国农业大学 资源与环境学院, 北京 100193 wangj@cau.edu.cn 
基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFD0300304);中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室基金项目(AMF201905);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201408)
中文摘要:为模拟未来气候变化对夏玉米发育期影响并估算增温背景下夏玉米收获至冬小麦播种间可调节热量资源,将河南省划分为4个夏玉米主栽区,引入未来气候变化情景(RCPs)数据驱动参数本地化后的CERES-Maize模型开展研究。结果表明:2006—2060年夏玉米生长季积温呈显著上升趋势,较基准条件(1951—2005年)平均增加179(RCP 4.5)和 235 ℃·d(RCP 8.5)。未来情景下夏玉米播种—开花和播种—成熟日数均呈缩短趋势,其中豫西(Ⅱ区)的变化率高于其他地区。2050s夏玉米播种—开花期全省平均缩短2.7(RCP 4.5)和3.4 d(RCP 8.5),播种—成熟期平均缩短9.4(RCP 4.5)和11.6 d(RCP 8.5),其中豫西(Ⅱ区)缩短最多。夏玉米可调节热量资源估算结果表明,未来气候变化情景下夏玉米成熟后—冬小麦播种前可调节热量资源豫东(Ⅲ区)增加最多,分别增加244.6(RCP 4.5)和296.8 ℃·d(RCP 8.5),豫西(Ⅱ区)增加最少,分别增加152.3(RCP 4.5)和215.8 ℃·d(RCP 8.5)。未来气候变化情景下夏玉米可生长日数豫西南(Ⅳ区)增加最多,分别增加9(RCP 4.5)和11 d(RCP 8.5),其他各区夏玉米可生长日数在RCP 4.5情景下分别增加8(豫北Ⅰ区)、6(豫西Ⅱ区)和8 d(豫东Ⅲ区);RCP 8.5情景下分别增加9(豫北区)、8(豫西Ⅱ区)和10 d(豫东Ⅲ区)。秋收秋种间可调节热量资源的增加将对提高玉米产量产生重要作用。
中文关键词:RCP 气候情景  CERES-Maize  气候变化  夏玉米  发育期  热量资源
 
Variation of summer maize development and estimation of adjustable thermal resource in Henan Province under RCP scenarios
Abstract:To simulate the impact of future climate change on summer maize development and adjustable thermal resource between harvesting summer maize and sowing winter wheat, this study applied the CERES-Maize model driven by future RCP scenarios in four maize growing regions in Henan Province. The results showed that the thermal time during summer maize growing season increased significantly in the future(2006-2060)with the increment of 179(RCP 4. 5)and 235 ℃·d(RCP 8. 5), respectively, compared to the baseline scenario(1951-2005). Under future RCP scenarios, both the duration from sowing to flowering and sowing to maturing were shortened compared to the baseline scenario and higher change rate in the western Henan Province was observed than that in other regions. To 2050s the duration from sowing to flowering would be respectively shortened by 2. 7(RCP 4. 5)and 3. 4 d(RCP 8. 5), and the duration from sowing to maturing would be respectively shortened by 9. 4(RCP 4. 5)and 11. 6 d(RCP 8. 5)with the highest decrease in the western Henan Province. Under future RCP scenarios, adjustable thermal resources between harvesting summer maize to sowing winter wheat would increase significantly with the highest increase in eastern Henan Province(244. 6 ℃·d under RCP 4. 5 and 296. 8 ℃·d under RCP 8. 5)and the lowest increase in western Henan Province(152. 3 ℃·d under RCP 4. 5 and 215. 8 ℃·d under RCP 8. 5). The growth duration from sowing to maturing would increase significantly by 8 d(zone Ⅰ-Norther Henan), 6(zone Ⅱ-Western Henan), 8(zone Ⅲ-Eastern-Henan)and 9 d(zone Ⅳ-Southwestern Henan)under RCP 4. 5, and 9(zone Ⅰ-Northern Henan), 8 d(zone Ⅱ-Western Henan), 10(zone Ⅲ-Eastern Henan)and 11 d(zone Ⅳ-Southwestern Henan)under RCP 8. 5. In conclusion, the increase in adjustable thermal resource between harvesting summer maize and sowing winter wheat would have a significant impact on maize yield improvement in Henan Province.
keywords:RCP scenarios  CERES-Maize  climate change  summer maize  development  thermal resource
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器