联合国可持续发展目标下的非洲粮食生产演变趋势与发展潜力分析

Evolution characteristics and development potential of grain production in Africa under the sustainable development goals of UNSUN Zhilu, LI Xiande*

关键词:  可持续发展目标  千年发展目标  粮食生产  发展潜力  全球农业生态区域

Key words:  Sustainable Development Goals  Millennium Development Goals  grain production  development potential  Global Agro-ecological Zone

摘要:

为探究非洲到2030年实现可持续发展目标(SDGs)的粮食发展基础，利用FAOSTAT数据，以小麦、稻谷和玉米为例，分析1961—2017年非洲粮食生产演变趋势，并以2017年作为参照期，利用全球农业生态区域(GAEZ)方法对非洲粮食发展潜力进行了估算。结果表明:1)非洲粮食收获面积和产量及其占世界比重总体上均以增为主，粮食单产显著提升，但目前大多数非洲国家的粮食单产仍明显低于世界和中国。2)以2017年为参照期，非洲粮食发展潜力为26 857.81万~27 579.44万t，发展潜力幅度为181.64%~186.52%。非洲小麦发展潜力为2 112.74万~2 415.65万t，发展潜力幅度为77.81%~88.96%；稻谷发展潜力为2 763.77万~2 817.96万t，发展潜力幅度为75.59%~77.08%；玉米发展潜力为21 768.07万~22 345.83万t，发展潜力幅度为258.67%~265.54%。因此，非洲粮食发展潜力巨大，这为改善区域内粮食安全状况和到2030年实现SDGs提供了非常坚实的基础。

Abstract:

To explore the grain development foundation of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)in Africa by 2030, using the data from FAOSTAT and taking wheat, paddy rice and maize as example, the evolution tendency of grain production in Africa from 1961 to 2017 is analyzed. Taking 2017 as the reference period, the grain development potential in Africa is estimated by using the Global Agro-Ecological Zone(GAEZ)method. The results show that: 1)Both the harvested area and grain production in Africa and their proportion of the world have mainly kept increasing. However, most African countries' grain yield is still significantly lower than that of the world and China. 2)Taking 2017 as the reference period, the grain development potential in Africa is between 26 857. 81×10⁴ and 27 579. 44×10⁴ t, and the growth range of which is between 181. 64% and 186. 52%. The wheat development potential in Africa is between 2 112. 74×10⁴ and 2 415. 65×10⁴ t, and the growth range of which is between 77. 81% and 88. 96%. The paddy rice development potential in Africa is between 2 763. 77×10⁴ and 2 817. 96×10⁴ t, and the growth range of which is between 75. 59% and 77. 08%. The maize development potential in Africa is between 21 768. 07×10⁴ and 22 345. 83×10⁴ t, and the growth range of which is between 258. 67% and 265. 54%. Therefore, the grain development potential in Africa is enormous, which will provide a very solid foundation to improve food security situation and achieve the SDGs by 2030 in Africa.