基于PSR-EEES模型的叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全预警测度
投稿时间:2019-04-22    点此下载全文
引用本文:麦丽开·艾麦提,满苏尔·沙比提,张雪琪,马国飞.基于PSR-EEES模型的叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全预警测度[J].中国农业大学学报,2020,25(2):130-141
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作者单位E-mail
麦丽开·艾麦提 新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院, 乌鲁木齐 830054 malika1210@163.com 
满苏尔·沙比提 新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院, 乌鲁木齐 830054 mansursa@163.com 
张雪琪 新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院, 乌鲁木齐 830054  
马国飞 新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院, 乌鲁木齐 830054  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41661100);新疆师范大学研究生科技创新基金(XSY201902008)
中文摘要:为客观评价叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全警情,基于PSR-EEES模型构建适合研究区的指标评价体系,运用综合指数法测度1990—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全预警状态,并结合GM(1,1)模型预测2026—2032年区域生态安全态势。结果表明:1)1990—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全综合预警指数总体呈增长趋势,综合预警指数从0.255 8增加到0.551 6,生态预警状态由重警转为中警,预警指示灯由橙色变为黄色;2)GM(1,1)预测模型显示,2026—2032年研究区生态安全态势进一步好转,生态安全预警值从0.726 2上升到0.891 3,安全状态由较安全转向安全,安全等级从Ⅱ级上调为Ⅳ、Ⅴ级;3)空间上各县生态安全预警状态差异明显,研究初期西南部地区生态安全状态优于中东部地区,2016年呈现出中部高、东北-西南部低的态势。研究显示,近26年叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态环境得到了一定恢复,但绿洲内部各县生态预警状态差异明显,生态文明建设工作任重而道远。
中文关键词:生态安全预警  PSR-EEES模型  灰色预测  叶尔羌河平原绿洲
 
Measure of ecological safety early warning in Yarkant river plain oasis based on PSR-EEES modelAMAT Malika, SHABIT Mansur *, ZHANG Xueqi, MA Guofei
Abstract:In order to objectively evaluate the ecological safety warning situation of Yarkant river plain oasis, an index evaluation system based on the PSR-EEES model suitable for the study area was constructed. The comprehensive index method was used to evaluate the ecological safety warning state of the Yarkant river plain oasis from 1990 to 2016, and the GM(1, 1)model was combined to predict the regional ecological safety situation from 2026 to 2032. The results showed that: 1)The comprehensive index of ecological safety early warning in Yarkant river plain oasis from 1990 to 2016 showed an overall increasing trend. increasing from 0. 255 8 to 0. 551 6, and the ecological warning changed from heavy alarm to moderate alarm with the warning indicator light changed from orange to yellow; 2)The forecast model of GM(1, 1)showed that the ecological safety situation of the study area in 2026-2032 was further improved, ecological security warning value increased from 0. 726 2 to 0. 891 3. A more secure statu emerged, and the safety grade was upgrated from grade Ⅱ to grade Ⅳ and Ⅴ; 3)The status of ecological safety early warning in different counties was obviously different. In the early stage of the study, the ecological safety state in the southwest was better than those in the central and eastern regions. In 2016, it showed a trend of higher in the center area and lower in the northeast and southwest areas. In conclusion, the ecological environment of Yarkant river plain oasis was restored to some extent in the past 26 years. However, the state differences of ecological safety early warning in different counties were obviously indicating that the construction of ecological civilization has a long way to go.
keywords:ecological safety early warning  PSR-EEES model  grey prediction  YarKant river plain oasis
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