1981-2015年华北地区种植结构演变及其驱动机制分析

Analysis of planting structure evolution and its driving mechanism in North China from 1981 to 2015

关键词:  华北地区  种植结构  演变特征  驱动因子  比较优势

Key words:  North China  planting structure  evolutionary feature  driving factors  comparative advantage

摘要:

为明确农业生产资料投入和作物受灾面积对作物产量的影响以及作物综合比较优势指数对华北地区种植结构演变的影响。本研究利用综合比较优势指数和线性回归等方法分析1981-2015年河北、河南和山东3个华北地区粮食主产省的作物生产、农业生产投入和作物受灾面积等变化特征。结果表明：1）1981-2015年，华北地区玉米和花生种植面积均显著增加，大豆和棉花种植面积均显著减少，冬小麦和油菜种植面积保持相对稳定；冬小麦、玉米和花生总产量显著增加，大豆和棉花总产量显著下降；1981-2015年所有作物单位面积产量均显著增加，其中冬小麦、玉米和花生单位面积产量增加速率较快，大豆和棉花单位面积产量增速较慢；2）1981-2015年，华北地区氮肥、磷肥和钾肥等肥料投入和有效灌溉面积均显著增加，增长速率分别为14.3万t/年、7.2万t/年、7.3万t/年和12.2万hm²/年；3）旱灾是影响华北地区作物生产的主要自然灾害，1981-2015年各省旱灾受灾面积显著减少；4）农业生产资料投入增加是作物单位面积产量提升的主要推动力，自然因素中旱灾是造成作物产量波动的主要因素，作物之间的比较优势是华北地区种植结构变化的主要驱动因子。

Abstract:

To explore the impact of agricultural production materials inputs and agricultural disaster area on crop yield and the impact of crop comprehensive comparative advantage index on planting structure evolution in North China,the comprehensive comparative advantage index and linear regression method were adopted to analyze the changing characteristics of the crop production,agricultural production inputs and the agricultural disaster area in the 3 major grain producing provinces which were Hebei,Henan and Shandong province in North China from 1981 to 2015.The results showed that:1) During 1981 and 2015,the planting areas of maize and peanut in North China increased significantly,soybean and cotton decreased significantly,and winter wheat and canola were relatively stable.The yield of winter wheat,maize and peanut showed an increasing trend,and the yield of soybean and cotton showed a downward trend.The per unit area yield of all crops increased significantly from 1981 to 2015,among which the per unit area yield of winter wheat,maize and peanut increased faster,and the perunit area yield of soybean and cotton increased slower;2) During the same period,the nitrogen,phosphate and potash fertilizer inputs and effective irrigated area increased significantly in North China,with annual growth rates of 143 000 t,72 000 t,73 000 t and 122 000 hm²,respectively;3) Drought was the main agricultural disaster affecting crop production in North China,which decreased significantly from 1981 to 2015;4) Increasing in investment in agricultural production materials was the main driving factor in crop yield improvement,agricultural disaster was the main factor causing crop yield fluctuations,and the comparative advantage between crops was the main driving factor for planting structure changes in North China.