“蓝色粮仓”建设潜力评估——来自我国沿海11省市的经验

Construction potential evaluation of “Blue granary”: An empirical study of 11 provinces and cities along the coast of China

关键词:  蓝色粮仓  建设指数  熵值法  层次分析法

Key words:  Blue granary  construction index  entropy method  AHP

摘要:

为深入分析我国"蓝色粮仓"建设的潜力，从海洋资源环境承载力、海洋灾害、产业多样性、产业集聚度、海洋渔业经济发展水平、海洋渔业科技水平及海洋渔业管理7个方面，选取23个影响"蓝色粮仓"建设的因素，运用层次分析法和熵值法确定影响因素的权重值，采用聚类分析法对我国"蓝色粮仓"建设综合结果进行评估和分类。结果显示，海南、浙江、福建3省的资源环境承载力最强，天津市最弱。山东、福建、浙江、广东4省渔业经济发展水平较高，而河北、广西壮族自治区（省）较为落后。山东、江苏省的海洋渔业科技水平较高，海南渔业科技投入严重不足；我国沿海11省市被划分为3类：第1类有山东、江苏、福建、广东、浙江、辽宁省，是"蓝色粮仓"建设重点推进区；第2类包括河北、广西、海南省（自治区），属于"蓝色粮仓"建设优化发展区；第3类有上海、天津市，为"蓝色粮仓"建设的区别对待区。

Abstract:

“Blue granary” is the realistic demand to ensure the national food security and optimize the national food structure.In order to analyze the potential of construction of "Blue granary" in China,a total of 23 factors affecting the construction of "Blue granary" are selected from the prospects of resources and environment carrying capacity,marine disaster,the diversity of related industries,the degree of associated industrial agglomeration,marine fisheries economic development level,Marine Fisheries Technology Level and marine fisheries management.AHP and entropy methods are used to determine the weight of each factor and build "Blue granary" construction index.Cluster analysis method is then used to evaluate and classify the comprehensive results of China's "Blue granary" construction.The results show that:The resources and environment carrying capacity of Hainan,Zhejiang and Fujian province are large While it is weakest in Tianjin.Four provinces,Shandong,Fujian,Zhejiang and Guangdong,have high levels of fishery economic development,while Hebei and Guangxi lag behind.Shandong and Jiangsu have advantages in marine fishery science and technology.Hainan's marine fishery science and technology investment is seriously insufficient.The 11 provinces and cities along the coast of China are divided into 3 categories:The first category is the key promotion area for the construction of the "Blue granary",including Shandong,Jiangsu,Fujian,Guangdong,Zhejiang and Liaoning;The second category includes Hebei,Guangxi and Hainan,which belong to the "Optimal development zone" for the construction of the "Blue granary";The third category includes Shanghai and Tianjin,which are grouped into different treatment areas for the "Blue granary" construction.