2002—2015年中国主要粮食作物过量施肥程度的空间关联格局分析

Spatial correlation pattern analysis of overuse fertilization about major grain crops in China from 2002 to 2015

关键词:  粮食作物  过量施肥程度  空间自相关  冷热点

Key words:  major grain crops  the degree of over fertilization  spatial autocorrelation theory  cold and hot spot analysis

摘要:

为使全国范围内化肥减量工作的开展更具有针对性，本研究采用C-D生产函数测算2002-2015年水稻、小麦、玉米3种粮食作物主产区的过量施肥程度，并运用空间自相关理论和冷热点分析方法，对中国主要粮食作物过量施肥程度的空间关联格局进行分析。结果显示：1）水稻主产区过量施肥程度的高值区域在黄淮海地区、华南地区呈团块状分布，小麦主产区过量施肥程度的高值区域在北部高原地区、黄淮海地区和长江中下游地区连片分布，玉米主产区过量施肥程度的高值区域在华南地区、长江中下游地区和东北地区呈团块状分布，集聚特征显著。2）水稻、小麦和玉米过量施肥程度均呈现出较强的空间自相关性，小麦集聚程度最强，水稻居中，玉米最弱。3）水稻过量施肥程度的热点区域主要分布在黄淮海地区、长江中下游地区和华南地区，冷点区域主要分布在北部高原地区和东北地区；小麦过量施肥程度的冷热点空间分布特征表现为"中间热周围冷"，热点区域集中在黄淮海地区和长江中下游地区，冷点区域集中在西北地区；玉米过量施肥程度的冷热点格局由"南热北冷"转变为"东热西冷"，热点区域集中在西南地区、华南地区和长江中下游地区，冷点区域集中在西北地区。

Abstract:

In order to carry out chemical fertilizer reduction work more specifically,this study employed Cobb-Douglas production function to evaluate the degree of over fertilization during 2002—2015,and then spatial autocorrelation theory and hot spot analysis were employed to analyze the spatial correlation pattern of over fertilization,which main production regions of rice,wheat and maize were taken as research objects.The conclusions showed that:1)The degree of over fertilization about crops was distributed regularly,which the high value areas of rice's overuse fertilization mostly were concentrated in the Huang Huai Hai Area and South China,the high value areas of wheat's overuse fertilization were distributed in Northern Plateau Area,Huang Huai Hai Area and Middle Lower Yangtze Region,and the high value areas of maize's overuse fertilization were distributed in South China,Middle Lower Yangtze Region and Northeast.2)The degree of over fertilization about rice,wheat and maize showed strong spatial autocorrelation,from its clustering characteristics view,wheat is the strongest,the rice is middle and the maize is the weakest.3)The hot spot regions of rice's over fertilization were mainly distributed in Huang Huai Hai Area,Middle Lower Yangtze Region and South China,and its cold spot regions were mainly distributed in Northern Plateau Area and Northeast;the spatial distribution of wheat's cold and hot spot showed "hot in middle and cold in round",which the hot spot regions were mainly distributed in Huang Huai Hai Area and Middle Lower Yangtze Region,and its cold spot regions were mainly distributed in Northwest;the pattern of cold and hot spot about maize was changed from "hot in south and cold in north" to "hot in east and cold in west",which the hot spot regions were mainly distributed in Southwest,South China and Middle Lower Yangtze Region,and its cold spot regions were mainly distributed in Northwest.