半干旱地区马铃薯种植户适应气候变化行为研究——基于甘肃省362个微观调查数据

Potato farmers' adaptive behavior to climate changes in semi-arid regions: Evidence from 362 survey data in Gansu Province

关键词:  气候变化  适应性行为  马铃薯  半干旱地区  Bivariate-Probit模型

Key words:  climate change  adaptive behavior  potato  semi-arid region  bivariate-probit model

摘要:

为了解甘肃省定西市马铃薯种植户适应气候变化行为及其影响因素，采用Bivariate-Probit模型，对362个马铃薯种植户主动和被动适应气候变化两种行为进行了研究，结果表明：种植户的年龄、是否参加技术培训、是否受到自然灾害、农业贷款可获得性明显促进了他们主动适应气候变化的行为，而村庄距市场距离、所在地域起负向影响；影响种植户是否采取被动适应性行为的主要因素是转移劳动力占家庭劳动力人数占比、受到自然灾害影响、获得农业贷款的可行性。就边际效应而言，农业贷款可获得性更能促进种植户适应气候变化。

Abstract:

In order to investigate potato growers' behaviors of adaptation to climate changes and its influence factors in Dingxi City, Gansu Province, a bivariate-probit model was used to empirically analyze 362 potato growers' behaviors of positive and passive adaptation to climate changes. The results showed that:Farmers' age, whether to participate in the technical training, whether suffered from natural disasters, agricultural loan availability significantly promoted their adaptive behavior of climate changes, while distances from markets to village and district displayed negative impact; The main factors, which affected whether farmers adopted passive adaptive behavior of climate changes or not, were the proportion of labor force in the family labor force, the influence of natural disasters and agricultural loans availability. Concerning the marginal effect, agricultural loans availability could help farmers to adapt to climate changes.