基于SSM的内蒙古牧区产业结构演进特征分析

Analysis on the evolution characteristics of the industrial structure in Inner Mongolia pastoral area based on SSM

关键词:  内蒙古  典型牧业旗县  产业结构演进  特征  偏离-份额分析法

Key words:  Inner Mongolia  typical animal husbandry banners  industrial structure evolution  characteristics  Shift-Share Method

摘要:

为探讨内蒙古33个典型牧业旗县产业结构演进特征，对近70年的内蒙古典型牧业旗县产业结构演进阶段及总体特征进行分析。采用产业经济学中的偏离—份额分析法及产业结构偏离度等指标，重点对1993—2015年内蒙古典型牧业旗县产业结构演进特征进行定量评价。研究表明，内蒙古牧区产业结构演进规律符合"配第—克拉克定理"，只是演进相对滞后，牧区产业政策是影响内蒙古牧区产业结构演进的主要力量。内蒙古牧区产业结构特征表现为：第一产业结构素质较低，第二产业原有竞争优势减弱，第三产业带动经济发展的能力越来越强。产值结构与就业结构不对称，第一产业超出了产业所需的劳动力，第二产业对劳动力的吸收能力很低，第三产业对劳动力的吸收能力逐渐增强。鉴于独一无二的草原生态经济价值和内蒙古牧区产业结构演进特征，产业结构调整应该从"二三一"模式调整为"三一二"模式。政府作为牧区政策的强力引导者，需要制定符合草原牧区特殊性和草原生态系统特点的产业政策。

Abstract:

To identify the evolution characteristics of the industrial structure of 33 typical animal husbandry banners in Inner Mongolia, the industrial structure evolution in the past 70 years was analyzed.The evolution characteristics of pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia from 1993 to 2015 were then investigated by using the SSM and other key indicators.The results indicated that:The evolution was consistent with "Petty-Clark theorem", but was relatively backward.The pastoral policy was the main driving force;The quality of the first industrial structure was low, the original competitive advantage of the second industry was weakened, and the third industry was more and more capable of driving economic development;The output structure and employment structure were asymmetry.Finally, it was proposed in this study that pastoral areas should be evolved from "231" directly to "312" structure.And the government should formulate industrial policy meeting the characteristics of the pastoral area and the grassland ecosystem.