极端气候变化及其对水稻气候产量影响的实证分析——以湖北省为例

Empirical analysis of extreme climate events and its impact on climate yield of rice: A case study of Hubei Province

关键词:  极端降水  极端温度  水稻  气候产量

Key words:  extreme precipitation  extreme temperature  rice  climate yield

摘要:

为考察湖北极端天气事件的时空变化，采用1980—2014年逐日气候数据，并利用实证分析法研究了极端气候对水稻气候产量的影响。研究表明：1）湖北极端降水量和降水天数均呈下降趋势，极端降水事件由东向西、由南向北递减。2）极端高温呈上升趋势，表现为极端高温天数和强度增加。鄂北、鄂西易发生极端高温事件。3）极端气候类因素对水稻气候产量具有负向影响，其中，最低气温的极小值每增加1%将会使水稻的气候产量降低0.197%。白天极端高温天数对水稻气候产量也具有抑制作用，其每增加1%将会使水稻气候产量降低0.046%。因此，应加强湖北省极端天气事件易发区在水稻生长期内的气候监测和防范。

Abstract:

Extreme weather was assessed based on the daily data of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 2014 in Hubei Province.The effects of extreme climatic factors on climate yield of rice were analyzed.The main conclusions were as follows: 1)Extreme precipitation and the days of precipitation showed an decreased trend,and extreme precipitation showed clear spatial decreasing distributions from east to west and from south to north; 2)Extreme high temperature showed an increasing trend,which mainly reflected in the increasing of both the number of days and intensity of extreme high temperature.The extreme high temperature events are easy to occur in the north and west of Hubei Province; 3)The impacts of extreme climate indicators on rice yield were negatively correlated.Among them,the minimum temperature increase of 1% would make the climate yield of rice decreased by 0.197%.The number of extreme high temperature days also inhibited the rice climatic yield,and the increase in the number of 1% would decrease the yield of rice by 0.046%.In conclusion,the climate monitoring should be strengthened to prevent the damages of extreme weather events on rice growth in Hubei Province.