| 摘要: |
| 为探究农业集聚对农业面源污染的影响，基于2000—2020年社会经济和农业生产数据，对长江流域主产区总体及各地级市的农业集聚和农业面源污染进行测度，分析其时空变化趋势；采用面板门槛模型，探究农业集聚对农业面源污染的非线性影响效应。结果表明：上、中、下游农业集聚整体上呈现递减趋势，表现为下游>中游>上游的特征；上游和下游农业面源污染未发生较大波动，但中游呈现先上升后下降的趋势，表现为中游>下游>上游的特征。农业集聚对农业面源污染的影响存在正向单门槛效应，农业集聚滞后项的门槛效应值有所下降。分区域看，上游和中游农业集聚无论小于等于门槛值，还是大于门槛值，均会加剧农业面源污染的排放，但跨越门槛值之后，上游的促进作用减弱，中游的促进作用增强，下游的门槛效应表现为由负向转向正向的特征。此外，农业生产条件、农业人口规模、畜禽业结构会加剧农业面源污染的排放，但产业结构升级和环境规制强度增加会降低农业面源污染的排放。建议进一步推广应用现代农业绿色生产技术，规范畜禽养殖户的生产经营行为，构建政府、农户、社会组织共同参与的协同治理体系，以推进区域农业绿色可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 农业集聚 农业面源污染 时空演进 门槛效应 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2024.03.20 |
| 投稿时间：2023-09-08 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目（72273049）；中央高校基本科研业务费项目（2662018YJ019） |
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| Impact of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural non-point source pollution in the main production areas of the Yangtze River basin： An empirical study based on panel threshold modeling |
|
ZHU Yangyang1,2, QI Zhenhong1,2*, TIAN Zhuoya1,2, WANG Xicong1,2
|
| (1.College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;2.Shuangshui Shuanglv Institute, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to investigate the impact of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural non-point source pollution， based on the socio-economic and agricultural production data from 2000 to 2020， the agricultural agglomeration and agricultural non-point source pollution in the main producing areas of the Yangtze River basin as a whole and in each prefectural-level cities were measured and their spatial and temporal trends were analyzed. A panel threshold model was used to investigate the nonlinear impact effect of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural non-point source pollution. The results showed that： The overall trend of agricultural agglomeration in the upper， middle and lower basin was decreasing， which was lower basin>middle basin>upper basin in descending order； The upper basin and lower basin agricultural non-point source pollution did not undergo large fluctuations， but the middle basin showed an upward and then downward trend， which was middle basin>lower basin>upper basin in descending order. There was a positive single-threshold effect of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural non-point source pollution， and the value of the threshold effect of the lagged term of agricultural agglomeration has decreased.Subregionally， the upper basin and middle basin agricultural agglomeration exacerbated agricultural non-point source pollution emissions regardless of less than or greater than the threshold value. After crossing the threshold， the facilitating effect of the upper basin weakened and that of the middle basin increased， there was a shift from negative to positive in the threshold effect in the lower basin. In addition， the agricultural production conditions， the size of the agricultural population， and the structure of the livestock and poultry industry exacerbated the emission of agricultural non-point source pollution. However， the upgrading of the industrial structure and the increase in the intensity of environmental regulation reduced the emission of agricultural non-point source pollution. In order to promote the green and sustainable development of regional agriculture， it is recommended to further promote the application of modern agricultural green production technology， regulate the production and management behavior of livestock and poultry farmers， and build a synergistic governance system with the participation of the government， farmers， and social organizations. |
| Key words: agricultural agglomeration agricultural non-point source pollution evolution of time and space threshold effect |
