| 摘要: |
| 在全球气候变暖的背景下，中国积极承诺并开展控制温室气体排放行动以期2030年实现碳达峰、2060年实现碳中和的目标。为厘清土地利用碳排放产生机制并合理预测碳排放，以曲周县为研究区，采用排放系数法、样地清查法、IPAT模型和最小二乘法等方法，构建碳排放核算体系以度量曲周县2009—2019年土地利用碳排放，并预测81类情景组合下2030年的碳排放情况。结果表明：1）曲周县2009—2019年土地利用碳排放总量呈先增加后减少的变化趋势。耕地、建设用地是两大碳排放源；2）预测首先按人均GDP设置，进一步根据人口、能源强度、产业结构共设置81类情景组合：当GDP处于高速发展时，曲周县未来碳排放总量模拟值区间为50万~221万t；当GDP处于惯性发展时，上升趋势组区间分别为51万~119万t，最小值为45万t，下降趋势组最小值29万t；当GDP处于低速发展时，呈下降趋势的两组最小值分别为21万和12万t，另一组在2030年预测值为35万~50万t。研究结论：土地利用变化会直接或间接影响碳排放，摸清地类碳属性可为预测碳排放及优化土地利用结构提供抓手。综上，曲周县可通过人口优化、调整能源结构、优化产业结构等路径在发展经济的同时实现低碳绿色发展。 |
| 关键词: 碳排放 土地利用 IPAT模型 碳排放预测 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2024.02.16 |
| 投稿时间：2023-07-18 |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划项目（2015BAD06B01） |
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| Carbon emission measurement and prediction of land use in Quzhou County based on carbon neutrality target |
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YANG Yunqi, HAO Jinmin*, ZHANG Jinyi, WU Zihao, SUN Yihang
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| (College of Land Science and Technology/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Quality and Monitoring of Ministry of Natural Resources， China Agricultural University， Beijing 100193， China) |
| Abstract: |
| In the context of global warming， China has actively committed to and carried out actions to control greenhouse gas emissions with a view to achieving carbon peaks by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. In order to clarify the mechanism of land use carbon emissions and reasonably predict carbon emissions， Quzhou County was taken as the research area， and the carbon emission accounting system was constructed by using emission coefficient method， sample plot inventory method， IPAT model and least square method to measure the carbon emissions of land use in Quzhou County from 2009 to 2019， and to predict the carbon emissions in 2030 under 81 scenario combinations. The results show that： 1） The total land use carbon emissions of Quzhou County from 2009 to 2019 showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. Cultivated land and construction land are two major sources of carbon emissions； 2） The prediction is first set based on per capita GDP， and further 81 scenario combinations are set based on population， energy intensity， and industrial structure： it can be obtained that when GDP is in high-speed development， the simulated value range of total carbon emissions in Quzhou County in the future is 0.50—2.21 million tons； when GDP is in inertial development， the upward trend group interval is 0.51—1.19 million tons， the minimum value is 0.45 million tons， and the minimum value of the downward trend group is 0.29 million tons ； when GDP is developing at a low speed， the two groups of minimum values that show a downward trend are 0.21 million tons and 0.12 million tons respectively， and the other group is predicted to be 0.35—0.50 million tons in 2030. It is concluded that land use change will directly or indirectly affect carbon emissions， and finding out the carbon attributes of land can provide a starting point for predicting carbon emissions and optimizing land use structure. In summary， Quzhou County can achieve low-carbon green development while developing the economy through population optimization， adjustment of energy structure， and optimization of industrial structure. |
| Key words: carbon emissions land use IPAT model carbon emission prediction |
