| 摘要: |
| 为探究碳达峰碳中和目标下林业碳汇项目经营不确定性对投资者投资门槛的影响，本研究以浙江省、福建省、广东省和湖北省的4 个典型林业碳汇项目案例为研究对象，聚焦林业碳汇项目经营面临的碳价格和技术进步不确定性，采用实物期权投资决策理论和求解方法，构建双重不确定性条件下投资者开展林业碳汇项目投资的门槛评价模型，研究林业碳汇项目经营面临的碳价格与技术进步不确定性对投资者投资门槛的影响与差异；并进一步揭示出在双重不确定性条件下其他经济参数对投资者投资门槛的影响效应。结果表明:1)不同类型林业碳汇项目投资门槛存在明显差异，经营类林业碳汇项目明显低于造林类林业碳汇项目。具体而言，毛竹造林碳汇项目、毛竹林经营碳汇项目、杉木造林碳汇项目和杉木经营碳汇项目由高到低(以CO2当量计)分别为645.90、415.09、160.28和135.89元/t，这表明从经济学角度看，投资者开展经营类林业碳汇项目投资可能更具有可行性。2)碳价格波动率对不同类型林业碳汇项目投资门槛有显著的正向影响；而林业碳汇项目经营技术进步，将显著降低不同类型林业碳汇项目投资门槛，技术进步概率提高到一定程度，投资者将选择立即投资策略。3)在碳价格和技术进步双重不确定条件下，劳动力价格与肥料价格对不同类型林业碳汇项目投资门槛值有显著的正向影响；而木材价格、竹材和竹笋价格对投资者投资门槛值有显著负向影响。综上，本研究从多角度提出了促进投资者开展林业碳汇项目投资的对策建议，可为我国碳达峰碳中和目标实现的对策提供依据。 |
| 关键词: “双碳”背景 林业碳汇项目 投资门槛 影响机理 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2023.12.16 |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-04 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(21YJC790003)；国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273133,71873126)；山西省科技战略研究专项项目(202104031402076)；山西省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2019W088)；山西省社科联重点课题研究项目(SSKLZDKT2022068) |
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| Impact of the uncertainty in forestry carbon sequestration project management on investors' investment threshold under the background of “dual carbon”: Take forestry carbon sequestration projects in four provinces as an example |
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CAO Xianlei1,REN Yunhe1,XU Qianqian2,WU Weiguang2*
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| (1.Faculty of International Trade, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China;2.School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University, Hangzhou 311300, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the impact of uncertainty of forestry carbon sequestration project management on the investment threshold of investors under the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, this study takes four typical cases of forestry carbon sequestration projects in Zhejiang Province, Fujian Province, Guangdong Province and Hubei Province as research objects. Focusing on the uncertainty of carbon price and technological progress in forestry carbon sink project management, this study uses the real option investment decision theory and solution method to build a threshold evaluation model for investors to carry out forestry carbon sink project investment under double uncertainty conditions. And then, the impact and difference of the uncertainty of carbon price and technological progress on the investment threshold of investors are investigated, and the impact of other economic parameters on the investment threshold of investors under the condition of double uncertainty is revealed. The results show that: 1)There are obvious differences in the investment threshold of different types of forestry carbon sequestration projects, showing that the carbon sequestration projects of management forestry are significantly lower than those of afforestation forestry. Specifically, the Phyllostachys pubescens afforestation carbon sequestration project, Phyllostachys pubescens management carbon sequestration project, Chinese fir afforestation carbon sequestration project and Chinese fir management carbon sequestration project from high to low are 645. 90, 415. 09, 160. 28 and 135. 89 yuan/t respectively, which indicates that from the perspective of economics, it may be more feasible for investors to invest in management forestry carbon sequestration projects. 2)Carbon price volatility has a significant positive impact on the investment threshold of different types of forestry carbon sequestration projects; However, the technological progress of forestry carbon sequestration projects will reduce the investment threshold of different types of forestry carbon sequestration projects. If the probability of technological progress increasing to a certain extent, the investors will choose the immediate investment strategy. 3)Under the dual uncertainty of carbon price and technology, labor price and fertilizer price have a positive impact on the investment threshold of different types of forestry carbon sequestration projects; contrarily, the prices of wood, bamboo and bamboo shoots have a significant negative impact on the investment threshold. Finally, based on the above research results, this study puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from various angles to promote investors to invest in forestry carbon sink project investment. This study provides a scientific basis for decision making to achieve China's carbon peak carbon neutral target. |
| Key words: “double carbon” background forestry carbon sequestration project investment threshold influence mechanism |
