| 摘要: |
| 为探究“双碳”目标下畜牧业的低碳发展问题，测算了中国31省(市、自治区)畜牧业碳排放量(统计数据未含港、澳、台地区，下同)，并借助核密度估计和LMDI分解模型分析其时空动态演进和影响因素。结果表明:1)中国畜牧业碳排放总量呈先上升后下降态势，碳排放强度呈下降态势且省际差距大幅缩小。2)强度效应对畜牧业碳排放的抑制作用最为明显，演变趋势呈现“强-稳定-强”抑制水平；农业结构效应呈现由促进作用转为抑制作用的变化特征；产业结构效应的抑制作用仅次于强度效应；经济效应的促进作用最大，其演变趋势呈现倒“U”；人口规模效应的促进作用较小。3)全国畜禽养殖及其主要种类碳排放量的影响因素存在地区差异。牧区的肉牛、肉羊以及东北地区生猪强度效应和产业结构效应的抑制作用不足削减经济效应带来的促进作用，促进了其碳排放的增加。因此，政府需积极引导养殖户进行清洁生产，加大对畜牧龙头企业在品种改良、饲料配比优化方面的科研投入，因地制宜的推进畜禽低碳养殖发展。 |
| 关键词: 畜牧业 碳排放 LMDI分解模型 时空演进 影响因素 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2023.09.23 |
| 投稿时间：2022-11-30 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA045)；国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AGL020)；国家社科基金青年项目(19CGL034) |
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| Study on space-time evolution and influence factors of carbon emissions in China's animal husbandry |
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BAI Xuebing1,HU Hao1*,ZHOU Yingheng2,ZHANG Yue3
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| (1.College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China;2.School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China;3.School of Management, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the low-carbon development of the animal husbandry under the “dual carbon” goal, the carbon emissions of China's animal husbandry were calculated(The data do not include those of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions. The same below). The spatial-temporal dynamic evolution and influencing factors were explored with the help of kernel density estimation and LMDI decomposition model. The results show that: 1)The total carbon emissions of China's animal husbandry first increased and then decreased, the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry showed a downward trend, and the inter-provincial gap narrowed significantly. 2)The inhibitory effect of the intensity effect is the most obvious, and the evolution trend presents a “strong-stable-strong” inhibition level; The agricultural structure effect presents a change characteristic from a promotional effect to an inhibitory effect; The inhibitory effect of the industrial structure effect is only inferior to the intensity effect; The promotion effect of the population size effect is the largest, and its evolution trend presents an inverted “U”; The promotion effect of the population size effect is small. 3)There are regional differences in the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the national livestock and poultry breeding industry and its main species. Beef cattle and mutton sheep in pastoral areas and some grassy areas in the south, as well as the inhibitory effect of the intensity effect and industrial structure effect of pigs in the Northeast, are insufficient to reduce the promotion effect brought by the economic effect, which promotes the increase of carbon emissions. Therefore, the government needs to actively guide farmers to carry out clean production, increase investment in scientific research on breed improvement and feed ratio optimization for leading livestock enterprises, and promote the development of low-carbon livestock and poultry farming according to local conditions. |
| Key words: animal husbandry carbon emissions LMDI decomposition model space-time evolution factors |
