| 摘要: |
| 光伏发电是我国重要的清洁能源发展战略，也是我国农村地区资产收益扶贫、减少碳排放、改善生态环境的重要方式。为探讨农村光伏项目的经济效益和社会效益，以北京顺义区150 MW农村分布式光伏项目为例，采用平准化度电成本(LCOE)模型和平准化度电社会效益(LSBOE)模型，并开发出平准化度电净效益(LNPVE)模型，探寻光伏项目对光伏补贴政策的依赖度和影响其可持续经济稳定性的敏感因素。结果表明:案例项目能够实现经济效益，但经济效益的高低取决于光伏补贴力度，对光伏补贴依赖性较大，仅在双重光伏补贴情况下可以实现平价上网；现行补贴上网电价下案例项目的长期经济效益仍存在不确定性，且这种不确定性随着光伏发电上网电价补贴“退坡”政策的出台而有所强化；影响光伏项目长期经济稳定性的首要因素是政策因素，其次是技术因素，再者是经济因素；光伏系统具有良好的社会效益，在其寿命期内的平准化度电社会效益为12.63元/kWh；若案例项目以北京市或者顺义区光伏补贴电价平价上网，则需将光伏系统的年平均利用小时数提高8.45%，或者将单位造价降低11.02%，或者将前5年光伏补贴的额度在现有基础上提升到0.768元/kWh；若要进一步实现以燃煤发电上网电价平价上网，则需将光伏系统的年平均利用小时数提高40.14%，或者将单位造价降低52.35%，或者将前五年光伏补贴的额度在现有基础上提升到1.398元/kWh；因此，为持续实现农村光伏项目的经济效益，政府应适当增加农村光伏补贴额度或减缓补贴下调额度，来减少光伏补贴“退坡”政策给光伏项目经济效益带来的冲击，同时应重视光伏相关技术研发和建造运营维护成本的降低。 |
| 关键词: 农村光伏系统 平准化度电成本(LCOE)模型 经济效益 社会效益 敏感性分析 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2023.09.19 |
| 投稿时间：2022-11-09 |
| 基金项目:内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2017MS0535)；内蒙古科技厅基金项目(NMGWZ-2020) |
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| Evaluation of socio-economic benefits of rural PV systems based on LCOE model: An example of rooftop distributed PV projects in Beijing suburbs |
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XU Wei1,LIU Zhenling1,WANG Huazhi1,LIU Susu2
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| (1.College of Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, Baotou 014000, China;2.College of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Photovoltaic power generation is an important clean energy development strategy in China, and it is also an important way to help the poor, reduce carbon emissions and improve the ecological environment in rural areas. This study takes the 150 MW rural distributed photovoltaic project in Shunyi District, Beijing as an example. The economic and social benefits of rural photovoltaic projects are studied using the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model and levelized social benefits of electricity(LSBOE)model. The research is carried out using the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model and levelized social benefit of electricity(LSBOE)model, and attention is concentrated on exploring the dependence of PV projects on PV subsidy policies and the sensitive factors affecting their sustainable economic stability. It results show that: The case project can achieve economic benefits, but the level of economic benefits depends on the strength of PV subsidies, which are highly dependent on PV subsidies. Affordable online access can only be achieved under dual photovoltaic subsidies; There is still uncertainty about the long-term economic benefits of the case project under the current subsidized on-grid electricity price, and this uncertainty has been strengthened with the introduction of the policy of “retrograding” of the feed-in tariff subsidy for photovoltaic power generation; The factors affecting the long-term economic stability of PV projects are ranked as follows: policy factors, technical factors and economic factors; In the meantime the photovoltaic system has good social benefits, the social benefit of levelized kilowatt-hour electricity in its service life is 12. 63 yuan/kWh; Based on the price of photovoltaic subsidies in Beijing or Shunyi District it is necessary to increase the average annual utilization hours of the PV system by 8. 45%, or reduce the unit cost by 11. 02%, or increase the amount of PV subsidies in the previous five years to 0. 768 yuan/kWh from the existing basis; When coal-fired power generation is used to achieve electricity price parity it is essential to increase the average annual utilization hours of PV system by 40. 14%, or reduce the unit cost by 52. 35%, or increase the amount of PV subsidies in the first five years to 1. 398 yuan/kWh from the existing basis; Therefore, in order to continuously realize the economic benefits of rural PV projects, the government should appropriately increase the amount of rural PV subsidies or slow down the reduction of subsidies. There has been a focus on reducing the impact of PV subsidy “recession” policy on the economic benefits of PV projects, and attention should be paid to photovoltaic-related technology research and development as well as reducing construction, operation and maintenance cost. |
| Key words: rural PV system levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model economic benefits social benefits ensitivity analysis |
