| 摘要: |
| 科学评估与预测病虫害对粮食安全的潜在影响，对于制定有效的病虫害风险管控措施，确保粮食稳产增产意义重大。基于中国农业产业模型(CASM)，模拟分析了高、中、低风险以及不同防控措施强度组合情景下病虫害风险对我国粮食安全的潜在影响。研究表明:1)随着病虫害致灾因子危险性加剧，按照“十三五”防控水平，水稻、小麦、玉米三大粮食作物减产损失有扩大风险，粮食产量损失率将由2016—2020年的2.13%提高到2.58%。高风险低防控情景下，“口粮绝对安全”甚至无法得到有效保障；2)经过科学防控，挽回的粮食直接经济损失大于防控成本。高风险情景下，不同防控措施下挽回的粮食经济损失为4 512~5 056 亿元，大于当前防控成本(179亿元)；3)转基因抗虫玉米产业化是玉米降低病虫害危害、节约农药成本的重要措施之一。预计种植转基因抗虫玉米可使得病虫害造成损失率从2.2%下降到1.0%，同时可节约60%农药成本。综上，为有效应对病虫害高发频发对粮食安全的不利影响，最大限度降低粮食病虫害减产损失，本研究建议尽快开展病虫害粮食危害损失评估与预测分析、提升重大病虫害疫情监测预警能力、加快推进生物科技创新和产业化应用、强化智能植保技术的开发与应用以及积极参与全球生物安全治理。 |
| 关键词: 病虫害 粮食安全 CASM模型 防控措施 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2023.08.02 |
| 投稿时间：2022-11-29 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71803184)；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(1610052022022) |
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| Potential impact of disease and pest risk on food security and its countermeasures |
|
WANG Xiaojun1,ZHANG Yumei2,SUN Weilin1,WANG Guogang1,HU Xiangdong1,MAO Shiping1*
|
| (1.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2.School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Scientific assessment and prediction of the potential impact of diseases and insect pests on food security is of great significance for formulating effective risk control measures and ensuring stable grain yield and increase. Based on China Agricultural Sector Model(CASM), this study simulates and analyzes the potential impact of disease and insect pest risks on Chinese food security under the scenarios of combination different risks and prevention and control intensity measures. The results show that: 1)As the risk of diseases and insect pests intensifies, according to the prevention and control level in 2016-2020, there is a risk of expansion of the loss of the rice, wheat and maize, and the loss rate of grain yield will increase from 2. 13% to 2. 58%. Under the high risk and low prevention and control scenario, the “absolute grain ration security” cannot even be effectively guaranteed. 2)After effective prevention and control, the direct economic loss of grain recovered is greater than the cost of prevention and control. Under the high-risk scenario, the grain economic losses recovered under different prevention and control measures is 451. 2~505. 6 billion yuan, which is greater than the cost of prevention and control(17. 9 billion yuan). 3)Biotechnology(industrialization of genetically modified insect-resistant maize)is one of the important measures for control of diseases and insect pests and save the cost of pesticides. Planting genetically modified maize can reduce the loss rate caused by diseases and insect pests from 2. 2% to 1. 0%, while saving more than 60% in pesticide costs. In order to effectively deal with the adverse impact of high incidence of diseases and insect pests on food security, and minimize the loss of grain diseases and insect pests. It is suggested to carry out the assessment and prediction analysis of the damage to grain caused by diseases and insect pests as soon as possible, improve the monitoring and early warning capacity of major diseases and insect pests, accelerate the promotion of biotechnology innovation and industrial application, strengthen the development and application of intelligent plant protection technology, and actively participate in the global biosafety governance. |
| Key words: diseases and insect pests food security CASM model Prevention and control measures |
