| 摘要: |
| 为分析中国农业经济增长模式与其他国家的异同，研判未来农业经济增长潜力，本研究基于新古典经济增长理论，从生产要素视角出发测度本世纪以来不同生产要素对中国农业经济增长的贡献情况，并就不同农业经济增长模式进行国际比较。结果表明:1)2000—2019年，资本对中国农业经济增长贡献率达到83.6%，是农业经济增长最重要的动能；全要素生产率对农业经济增长贡献率为6.2%，近年来贡献水平有所上升；土地、化肥对农业经济增长的贡献率分别为5.8%和4.4%。2)国际比较发现，多数发达国家已经进入以全要素生产率为农业经济增长主要驱动力的发展阶段，发展中国家农业经济增长仍是以资本驱动为主。3)通过不同发展阶段比较发现，随着一国经济结构的转型升级，农业经济增长模式将逐步由投资驱动转换为全要素生产率驱动，而当前我国农业经济增长仍表现出较强的资本依赖性，全要素生产率水平将成为决定中长期农业经济增长速度的关键。 |
| 关键词: 农业经济增长 生产要素 增长动能转换 国际比较 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2023.04.21 |
| 投稿时间：2022-07-24 |
| 基金项目:浙江省杰出青年科学基金项目(LR20G030001)；中国人民大学2021年度中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金 |
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| An analysis of China's agricultural economic growth model based on the perspective of factors of production: International comparison of panel data from 75 countries |
|
HU Chenpei1,HU Xia1*,JI Wei2
|
| (1.School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;2.School of Agriculture and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The aims of this study are to clarify the agricultural economic growth mode of China since this century and its similarities and differences with other countries, and analyze the potential of China's agricultural economic growth in the future. Based on the neoclassical economic growth theory, the contribution of different production factors to China's agricultural economic growth since the beginning of this century are measured from the perspective of production factors, and the international comparisons of different growth models are conducted. The results show that: 1)From 2000 to 2019, the contribution rate of physical capital to China's agricultural economic growth reached 83. 6%, which is the most important driving force for agricultural economic growth; The contribution rate of total factor productivity to agricultural economic growth is 6. 2% and its level has increased. The contribution rates of land and fertilizers to agricultural economic growth are 5. 8% and 4. 4%, respectively. 2)International comparisons show that total factor productivity has become the most important driving force for agricultural economic growth in most countries, especially in developed countries and small-scale peasant economies and the agricultural economic growth in developing countries is still mainly driven by physical capital. 3)Through the comparison of different development stages, it is found that the growth momentum of agricultural economy will gradually be transformed from investment-driven to total factor productivity-driven, while the current agricultural economic growth in my country still shows a strong dependence on capital, and the level of total factor productivity will become a decisive factor key to long-term agricultural economic growth. |
| Key words: agricultural economic growth production factors growth kinetic energy conversion international comparison |
