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| 西南地区单季稻高温热害时空变化特征及其影响因素 |
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陈翛1,黄彬香1,2*,潘志华1,2,张艺璇1,何奇瑾1,2,胡琦1,2
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| (1.中国农业大学 资源与环境学院, 北京 100193;2.中国气象局—中国农业大学农业应对气候变化联合实验室, 北京 100193) |
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| 摘要: |
| 为探明西南地区单季稻高温热害时空变化特征及其影响因素，利用西南地区1981—2020年逐日气象资料，以单季稻关键生育时期(孕穗期至开花期、灌浆期)为研究时段，选用危害热积温指数(Ha)为参数，通过线性回归、通径分析方法，计算了不同等级高温热害发生的站次比、强度、频率以及气象要素对Ha的通径系数。结果表明:1)单季稻孕穗期至开花期、灌浆期Ha总体呈现上升趋势，其中重庆地区增幅最高，分别为每10 a变化8.3和1.4 ℃·d，四川次之，分别为每10 a变化6.2和1.4 ℃·d；2)孕穗期至开花期、灌浆期高温热害发生站次比总体呈上升趋势，每10 a倾向率分别为3.4%和2.7%，中、重度等级高温热害所占比例呈增加趋势；3)高温热害发生频率空间上总体呈现东北高、西南低的分布特征，孕穗期至开花期高值区在四川盆地东北部、重庆大部、贵州东北部和南部以及云南元江地区，最高的站点为重庆的万州和丰都，达到100.0%；灌浆期高值区在四川的东南部、重庆大部以及云南元江地区，最高的站点为四川的叙永地区，达到72.5%；4)影响孕穗至开花期和灌浆期Ha的最大正相关因素分别为最高温度和日照时数，最大负相关影响因素均为相对湿度。 |
| 关键词: 危害热积温 单季稻 高温热害 时空分布 通径分析 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2023.01.03 |
| 投稿时间：2022-06-16 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划专题(2017YFD0300401-02) |
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| Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of high temperature damage of single-cropping rice in Southwest China |
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CHEN Xiao1,HUANG Binxiang1,2*,PAN Zhihua1,2,ZHANG Yixuan1,HE Qijin1,2,HU Qi1,2
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| (1.College of Resources and Environment, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2.CMA-CAU Jointly Laboratory of Agriculture Addressing Climate Change, Beijing100193, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The aims of this study were to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of high temperature damage of single-cropping rice in Southwest China. Based on the day-by-day meteorological data obtained from 1981 to 2020, this study selected the accumulated hot damage temperature index(Ha)and calculated the station ratio, intensity and frequency of heat damage at different levels, and path analysis index of meteorological elements to Ha by linear regression and path analysis. The results showed that: 1)The accumulated hot damage temperature index of single-cropping on booting to flowering and filling stage showed an overall upward trend. Chongqing had the highest increase rate of 8. 3 and 1. 4 ℃·d per decade, followed by Sichuan with 6. 2 and 1. 4 ℃·d per decade; 2)The station ratio of high temperature heat damage increased as a whole and the rates were 3. 4% and 2. 7% per decade. The proportion of moderate and severe high temperature damage kept increasing; 3)The frequency of high temperature damage was generally high in the northeast and low in the southwest. The high Ha value areas at booting to flowering stage were in the northeast of the Sichuan Basin, most of Chongqing, northeast and south of Guizhou, and the Yuanjiang region of Yunnan. Wanzhou and Fengdu of Chongqing reached the highest values of 100. 0%; The high-value areas during the filling stage were in the southeast of Sichuan, most of Chongqing and Yuanjiang area of Yunnan. Xuyong of Sichuan reached the highest values of 72. 5%; 4)The maximal positive correlation factors for affecting Ha from booting to flowering stage and filling stage were the maximum temperature and the sunshine hours, respectively, and the negative correlation factor was the relative humidity. |
| Key words: accumulated hot damage temperature single-cropping rice high temperature heat damage temporal and spatial characteristics path analysis. |
