| 摘要: |
| 为保证河套灌区粮食安全，实现农业可持续发展。以河套灌区内有限的农业水土资源作为研究对象，首先针对粮食安全下的生产安全构建评价系统，使用直觉模糊层次分析法计算系统中各指标权重；然后将该评价系统与优化方法相耦合，建立兼顾粮食安全、经济效益、公平性与节约用水的农业水土资源优化模型；最后使用直觉模糊层次分析法和模糊规划方法来处理决策过程和黄河来水信息中存在的不确定性，通过设置不同可信度水平，求解获得多情景下灌区农业水土资源配置结果。结果表明:1)直觉模糊层次分析法可以携带更多的决策信息，得到的评价结果更能反映河套灌区真实情况；2)耦合模型可以有效处理系统中存在的模糊不确定性，利用模糊可信度方法可以帮助灌区管理者制定政策时在不同的风险和效益中做权衡；3)使用同等可用水量下的现状年(2011年)、全目标模型、排除粮食生产安全目标模型做情景对比，评价值分别为0.833 0、0.843 6、0.798 4，全目标模型为最优，表明粮食生产安全评价与优化方法的耦合可以在兼顾其他目标的同时，有效地调控并保障河套灌区粮食生产安全水平。此外，通过求解该模型，本研究获得一系列农业水土资源分配方案，可为河套灌区合理配置农业水土资源和提高粮食生产安全水平提供决策支持。 |
| 关键词: 直觉模糊层次分析法 粮食生产安全评价 多目标优化 模糊可信度规划 河套灌区。 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2022.12.04 |
| 投稿时间：2022-03-19 |
| 基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508705) |
|
| Agricultural water and land resources management in Hetao Irrigation District based on the regulation of food production safety |
|
JIANG Qianzheng,LUO Biao,GUO Ping,WU Hui
|
| (College of Water Resources & Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to ensure food safety and achieve sustainable agricultural development in Hetao Irrigation District, the limited agricultural water and land resources in Hetao Irrigation District are taken as study objects. Firstly, this study builds an evaluation system for food production safety, and the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index in the system. Secondly, the evaluation system is coupled with an optimal method to construct an new optimal model of food safety, economic benefits, equity and water conservation. The intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy programming method are used to deal with the uncertainty in the decision-making process and water inflow information. Finally, the allocation strategies of agricultural water and land resources in irrigation areas under different credibility levels multiple conditions are analyzed. The results show that: 1)The intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process can involve more decision-making information, which can better reflect the real situation of the Hetao Irrigation District; 2)The coupled model can effectively cope with the fuzzy uncertainty in the system, which can help the Hetao Irrigation District managers to weigh different risks and benefits when making policies; 3)Under the same available water volume, the current year(2011), the full objectives model and the new model after removing the food production safety objective in this study are used for scenario comparison, and the evaluation values are 0. 833 0, 0. 843 6, and 0. 798 4, respectively. The full objectives model is the best, which shows the combination of food production safety evaluation and the optimized method can effectively ensure and regulate the safety level of food production in Hetao Irrigation District while considering other objectives. In addition, by solving this model, a series allocation plans of agricultural water and land resource are generated in this study, which can provide decision support for the rational management of agricultural water and land resources and improve food production safety in the Hetao Irrigation District. |
| Key words: intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process food production safety evaluation multi-objective optimization fuzzy credibility constrained programming Hetao Irrigation District |
