| 摘要: |
| 为探究畜禽禁养区政策对畜禽养殖业产生的经济效应与环境效应，基于中国31个省的数据(统计数据未含港、澳、台地区)，分析了禁养区政策实施对畜禽养殖数量、品种结构、规模结构及空间布局的影响，采用排泄系数法估算了畜禽粪便和氮磷污染产生量及其耕地负荷情况，采用等标污染负荷评价方法评估畜禽养殖水污染情况。结果表明:1)政策实施使畜禽养殖总量迅速下降，散户逐渐退出，行业产能向大户集中，猪和牛的养殖受到政策冲击较大，畜禽养殖有向部分地区转移的趋势；2)政策实施带来的养殖量的直接减少有助于缓解畜禽养殖带来的耕地污染及水污染压力，但仍存在较大的环境污染与污染转移风险。中国大部分地区畜禽粪便负荷量超出当地耕地承载能力，粪便总量较大的地区呈现连片聚集态势，部分地区氮、磷污染仍超标，少数地区水污染风险仍较大。因此，政府有必要进一步加强整体与局部养殖区域的规划布局，提高养殖场畜禽粪便资源化处理能力，积极推广种养一体化农业生产模式，促进畜禽粪污有机肥转化，完善畜禽养殖污染排放标准。 |
| 关键词: 禁养区政策 畜禽粪便 耕地负荷 等标污染负荷 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2022.11.25 |
| 投稿时间：2022-02-16 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(16AJY013)；北京市自然科学基金项目(9212011) |
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| Structural adjustment and environmental effect of livestock and poultry breeding under policy of prohibiting livestock and poultry production |
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XIONG Bei,WANG Ruimei
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| (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The aim of this study is to explore the economic and environmental effects of the policy of prohibiting livestock and poultry production. Based on the data of 31 provinces in China(the data do not include those of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions), this study analyzes the impact of the policy implementation on livestock and poultry breeding quantity, breed structure, scale structure and spatial layout, and calculates the production of livestock and poultry manure, nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and the load of cultivated land using the excretion coefficient method. The equal standard pollution loading method is used to evaluate the water pollution. The results indicate that: 1)The total livestock and poultry production decrease rapidly, the individual investors withdraw gradually, and the industrial production capacity is concentrated in large households. The breeding of pig and cattle is greatly impacted by the policy, and the livestock and poultry farming has a tendency to shift to some areas. 2)The direct reduction of the breeding quantity caused by the implementation of the policy helps to slightly alleviate the cultivated land pollution and water pollution pressure caused by livestock production, but there are still large risks of environmental pollution and pollution transfer. In most areas of China, the manure load of livestock and poultry exceeds the carrying capacity of local arable land, and the areas with a large amount of manure show a trend of agglomeration, and the N and P pollution in some areas still exceed the standard. A few areas are still at high risk of water pollution. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to further strengthen the planning and layout of overall and local breeding areas, improve the resource treatment capacity of livestock and poultry manure in breeding farms, actively popularize the integrated agricultural production mode of planting and breeding, promote the conversion of manure and organic manure from livestock and poultry and improve the pollution emission standards of livestock and poultry breeding. |
| Key words: policy of prohibiting livestock and poultry production livestock manure load of cultivated land equal standard pollution loading |
