| 摘要: |
| 为探究区域生态保护和优化城市布局支撑路径，以北京市行政中心迁移为背景，基于2009—2017年通州区土地利用调查和自然、社会经济数据，利用Dyna-CLUE模型模拟通州区2035年不同情景下的土地利用空间分布。结果显示:1)2017年模拟结果显示Kappa系数为0.95，表明模拟结果与真实几乎完全一致，可以应用于情景模拟；2)自然增长情景主要变化特征为耕地、园地(草地)和水域转向建设用地，生态保护情景下变化最为明显的是耕地、园地(草地)和设施农用地转向林地，而政府规划情景为园地(草地)和设施农用地转向林地；3)相较于自然增长和政府规划情景，生态保护情景加强了林地保护，抑制了建设用地的增长；相较于自然增长情景，政府规划情景强调了耕地保护，抑制了建设用地的增长。从空间上看，区别主要在于东南部的漷县镇以及北部的宋庄镇。根据研究结果提出以下政策建议:1)耕地保护需要关注城市副中心边缘地区和通州区东部乡镇；2)园地(草地)保护需要聚焦于通州区北部的宋庄镇和东部的西集镇；3)新增林地规划可以重点关注通州区东南的漷县镇、中部的张家湾镇以及北部的宋庄镇，而水域规划可以着重于通州区城区周边乡镇以及东南的漷县镇。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用/覆被变化 Dyna-CLUE模型 通州区 情景模拟 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2022.08.21 |
| 投稿时间：2021-12-07 |
| 基金项目:北京市与中央高校共建双一流大学项目(311318410121) |
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| Scenario simulation of land use in Tongzhou District under the background of administrative center migration |
|
LI Penghui,ZHANG Zhanlu
|
| (School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To explore the supporting path for regional ecological protection and optimization of urban layout, taking the migration of Beijing administrative center as the background, based on the land use survey and natural and socio-economic data of Tongzhou District from 2009 to 2017, Dyan-CLUE model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Tongzhou District under different scenarios in 2035. The results show that: 1)The simulation results of year 2017 show that the kappa coefficient is 0. 95, which indicates that the simulation results are almost consistent with the reality, and can be applied to scenario simulation. 2)The main change characteristics of the natural growth scenario are that cultivated land, garden(grassland)and water area turn to construction land. The most obvious change under the ecological protection scenario is that cultivated land, garden(grassland)and facility agricultural land turn to forest land, while the government planning scenario is that garden(grassland)and facility agricultural land turn to forest land. 3)Compared with natural growth and government planning scenario, ecological protection scenario strengthens the protection of forest land and inhibits the growth of construction land; Compared with the natural growth scenario, the government planning scenario emphasizes the protection of cultivated land and inhibits the growth of construction land. In terms of space, the difference mainly lies in Shexian Town in the southeast and Songzhuang Town in the north. According to the research results, the following policy suggestions are put forward: 1)Cultivated land protection needs to pay attention to the marginal areas of urban sub centers and towns in the east of Tongzhou District; 2)Garden(grassland)protection needs to focus on Songzhuang Town in the north and Xiji Town in the east of Tongzhou District; 3)New forest land planning can focus on Shexian Town in the southeast of Tongzhou District, Zhangjiawan Town in the middle and Songzhuang Town in the north of Tongzhou District, while water area planning can focus on towns around the urban area of Tongzhou District and Shexian Town in the southeast. |
| Key words: LUCC Dyan-CLUE model Tongzhou District scenario simulation |
