| 摘要: |
| 为探索农业企业进入线上市场的时机决策机制，本研究基于实物期权理论框架，构建了农企线上进入时机决策理论模型，以中小型茶叶企业为研究对象，利用Python数据采集方式，获得阿里巴巴天猫会员数据库与国家企业信用信息公示系统数据库的匹配数据，使用Cox和Probit等模型对农业企业线上市场进入时机选择的决策动因进行了实证检验。结果表明:1)降低不确定性能够促进农企提早进入线上市场，体现在拥有线上经验和较高多元化程度有助于农业企业更快速进入线上销售。2)网络效应强于拥挤效应时农企倾向于及早进入，表现为农业企业在线上市场成长阶段的进入延迟时间比市场萌芽阶段要短。3)线上市场的正外部效应能够削弱不确定性对农业企业市场进入的负面作用；线上经验、产品多元化和市场发展阶段对不同规模与经营模式的农企线上市场进入时机的影响效应存在显著异质性。因此，农业企业应当注重积累网上经验和丰富产品多样性，根据线上市场发展规律，积极利用网络效应优势和规避拥挤效应劣势，并结合自身资源禀赋，以达到线上市场最佳进入时机的效果。 |
| 关键词: 农业企业 线上市场 进入时机 决策机制 实物期权 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2022.02.25 |
| 投稿时间：2021-07-06 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(71271207) |
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| Decision-making mechanism of online market entry timing for agricultural enterprises: Empirical evidence from small and medium-sized tea enterprises in China |
|
LI Song,ZHAO Dongmei
|
| (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the timing decision-making mechanism for agricultural enterprises to enter the online market, this study builds a theoretical model for the timing of agricultural enterprises' online entry based on real option theoretical framework. Taking small and medium-sized tea enterprises as the research object, the matching data between Alibaba Tmall Member Database and National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System Database were obtained by using Python data collection method, and the decision influencing factors of agricultural enterprises' online market entry timing were empirically tested by using Cox and Probit models. The results show that: 1)Reducing uncertainty can promote early entry of agricultural enterprises into the online market, which is reflected in the fact that having online experience and a higher degree of diversification helps agricultural enterprises enter online sales more quickly. 2)When the network effect is stronger than the crowding effect, agricultural enterprises tend to enter early, which shows that the delay time of entry in the online market growth stage of agricultural enterprises is shorter than that in the emerging stage of the market. 3)The positive external effect of online market can weaken the negative effect of uncertainty on agricultural enterprises' market entry. There is significant heterogeneity in the effects of online experience, product diversification and market development stage on the timing of online market entry of agricultural enterprises with different sizes and business models. Therefore, agricultural enterprises should pay attention to accumulate online experience and enrich product diversity, be according to the law of online market development, actively make use of the advantages of network effect and avoid the disadvantage of congestion effect, and combine their own resource endowment to achieve the effect of the most optimal timing to enter the online market. |
| Key words: tea enterprises online market entry timing decision-making mechanism real option theory |
