| 摘要: |
| 为了解羊毛进口对国内羊毛生产的影响及中国羊毛不同进口来源国的可依赖性，首先运用Armington模型测算了2000—2019年中国羊毛主要进口来源国的进口替代弹性，其次，运用出口产出弹性测算方法分析中国羊毛不同进口来源国的可依赖性。结果表明:国产羊毛与进口羊毛间的同质性较低，可替代性较小；分进口来源地看，新西兰羊毛对国产羊毛的替代弹性较小，乌拉圭和其他进口来源国羊毛对国产羊毛的进口替代弹性较大，而澳大利亚和南非进口羊毛对国产羊毛的替代弹性均不显著。从不同进口来源国的可依赖性看，在主要进口来源国中，澳大利亚、新西兰、英国和南非等国羊毛生产资源均较为丰富，且新西兰、南非当前的羊毛出口产出弹性均大于1，羊毛供给潜力较大，但澳大利亚、英国等国家当前的羊毛出口产出弹性均小于1；在非主要进口来源国中，阿根廷羊毛生产资源较为丰富且羊毛出口产出弹性值近年日益增加，秘鲁羊毛生产资源虽较为一般但羊毛出口产出弹性大于1。为保障羊毛供给安全，我国应在与传统羊毛进口国保持良好合作关系的同时积极拓宽新的羊毛进口渠道，建立多元化进口渠道，并加大优质绵羊品种保护力度，提高国产羊毛产量和质量。 |
| 关键词: 羊毛 进口依赖 替代弹性 出口产出弹性 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.11.24 |
| 投稿时间：2021-02-06 |
| 基金项目:国家现代农业产业技术体系资助项目(CARS-39-22) |
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| Substitution elasticity and dependency of wool import in China based on Armington model |
|
GUO Yanjing,XIAO Haifeng
|
| (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The aims of this study were to understand the impact of wool imports on domestic wool production and the reliance of different import source countries of Chinese wool. Firstly, the Armington model was introduced to measure the import substitution elasticity of China's wool import source countries from 2000 to 2019. The export output elasticity measurement method was then applied to analyze the dependence of different wool import source countries. The results show that: The homogeneity between domestic wool and imported wool is low, and the substitutability is small; From the perspective of import sources, New Zealand wool import has less substitution elasticity for domestic wool, while Uruguay and other imported source countries have greater substitution elasticity for domestic wool. However, the substitution elasticity of imported wool from Australia and South Africa for domestic wool is not significant. From the perspective of the dependence of different import source countries, among the main import source countries, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and South Africa are relatively rich in wool production resources, and the current wool export output elasticity of New Zealand and South Africa is greater than 1. The supply potential is great, but the current wool export output elasticity of Australia, the United Kingdom and other countries is less than 1; Among the non-main import source countries, Argentina's wool production resources are relatively abundant and the wool export output elasticity value has been increasing in recent years, and Peru's wool production. Although the resources are relatively general, the output elasticity of wool export is greater than 1. To ensure the safety of wool supply, China should actively expand new wool import channels while maintaining good cooperative relations with traditional wool importing countries, establish diversified import channels, increase protection of high-quality sheep breeds, and increase domestic wool production and quality. |
| Key words: wool import dependence substitution elasticity export output elasticity |
