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| 基于灾情数据的河北省冬小麦气象灾害与病虫害规律分析 |
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魏玉凯1,2,安萍莉1,2*,张国梁1,2,江丽1,2,孟丽君1,2
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| (1.中国农业大学 土地科学与技术学院, 北京 100193;2.自然资源部 农用地质量与监控重点实验室, 北京 100193) |
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| 摘要: |
| 为探究冬小麦生育期内不同灾害发生规律，以河北省冬小麦主产区为研究区域，基于1990—2018年灾情数据分析各灾害时空特征，估算主要灾害减产比例。结果表明:1)冬小麦旱灾发生频繁，拔节期和抽穗期旱灾频率最高分别为0.7和0.6；研究期内风雹灾共计54次，主要发生在抽穗期(21次)、乳熟期(11次)和成熟期(19次)；低温冻害共计27次，主要发生在分蘖期(10次)和拔节期(14次)；干热风主要集中在抽穗期、乳熟期和成熟期；病虫害多出现在抽穗期。2)1990—2018年，冬小麦生育期内旱灾发生频率呈下降趋势，风雹灾次数与干热风日数呈现增长趋势，低温冻害次数与病虫害受灾程度持续下降。3)小麦生育期内旱灾频率均处于较高水平，中南部更易出现旱灾；风雹灾随冬小麦生育期由南向北推进；西部地区全生育期内低温冻害次数较多，南部地区拔节期低温冻害次数较多；干热风年均日数由北向南递增；南部地区病虫害年均发生率较高。4)旱灾减产贡献率最大，低温冻害贡献率较低，中南部冬小麦减产水平较高，石家庄市和廊坊市减产比例均在6%以上，其他地区在5%左右。因此，为降低冬小麦灾损率，各地应根据灾害发生规律在现有减灾措施基础上进一步重视风雹灾及干热风对冬小麦的影响。 |
| 关键词: 冬小麦 生育期 自然灾害 灾害强度 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.11.03 |
| 投稿时间：2020-12-30 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFD0300502-3) |
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| Analysis on the occurrence rules of meteorological disasters and diseases and pests of winter wheat in Hebei Province based on disasters data |
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WEI Yukai1,2,AN Pingli1,2*,ZHANG Guoliang1,2,JIANG Li1,2,MENG Lijun1,2
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| (1. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Land Qualify, Monitoring and Control of Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100193, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the occurrence rules of different disasters during the growth period of winter wheat, the main wheat producing area of Hebei Province was taken as the research area, the disasters data from 1990 to 2018 were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of disasters and to estimate the major disaster damage ratio of winter wheat. The results showed that: 1)Winter wheat drought occurred frequently, the highest drought frequencies of winter wheat at jointing stage and heading stage were 0. 7 and 0. 6, respectively; during the study period, there were 54 times of wind-hail disasters mainly occurred in heading stage(21 times), milk-ripening stage(11 times)and ripening stage(19 times); freezing injury were 27 times in total, among which 10 times were at tillering stage and 14 times were at jointing stage; dry-hot wind mainly appeared in heading stage, milk-ripening stage and ripening stage; diseases and pests mainly appeared in the heading stage. 2)During the growth period of winter wheat from 1990 to 2018, the frequency of drought decreased, the wind-hail times and dry-hot wind days showed a growing trend, the number of freezing injury and the extent of diseases and pests continued to decline. 3)The frequency of drought in all regions was at high level, among which the central and southern regions were more prone to drought; wind-hail disaster moved from south to north with the growth period of winter wheat; the occurrence of freezing injury was more frequent in western region during the whole growth period and more frequent in southern region at jointing stage; the annual number of hot-dry wind days increased from north to south; the annual disaster rate of diseases and pests is higher in the south. 4)The contribution rate of drought reduction was the highest, the contribution rate of freezing injury was lower, and the reduction rate of winter wheat in central and southern regions were higher. The yield of winter wheat in both Shijiazhuang and Langfang reduced by more than 6%, and by about 5% in other areas. Therefore, to reduce the rate of winter wheat disaster damage, each region should pay more attention to the effects of wind-hail and dry-hot wind on winter wheat on the basis of the existing disaster reduction measurement according to the occurrence law of disasters. |
| Key words: winter wheat growth period natural disasters disaster intensity |
