| 摘要: |
| 为解决农业区划中多以7月(1月)替代最热(冷)月的简单替代而导致的温度误差问题，探索最热(冷)月温度的准确统计方法。以宁夏银川地面气象站1951—2019年逐日气温数据为研究对象，31 d为月时长，采用农业气象统计学方法，统计分析最热(冷)月时段起止日期和温度的年际变化。结果表明:1)最热(冷)月发生时间多在7月(1月)，多年平均最高(低)月平均温度发生在7月(1月)；最热(冷)月时段起止时间分别跨越6月中旬—8月下旬和12月上旬—2月中旬。2)1951—2019年，最热月时段比7月温度最多高2.0 ℃，平均高0.5 ℃；最冷月时段比1月温度最多低4.6 ℃，平均低1.1 ℃。3)按世界气象组织WMO气候值30 年统计标准，1951—2010年4个气候标准时段间，最热(冷)月时段起止日期相对稳定，温度呈升高趋势，最冷月时段升温幅度是最热月时段的近3倍。4)最热(冷)月时段温度气候预估准确率分别为92.1%和55.3%。因此，本研究中最热(冷)月时段温度统计方法准确测算了最热(冷)月时段起止日期和温度，对最热月时段温度预估准确率较高，但最冷月时段温度预估准确率仍有待提高。 |
| 关键词: 最热月 最冷月 滑动平均 热均段 冷均段 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.09.07 |
| 投稿时间：2021-03-14 |
| 基金项目:热带与特色林果气象灾害监测预警技术与业务平台(2019YFD1002203)；科技部“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502801) |
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| Discussion on the duration of the hottest or coldest month as crop planting zoning index |
|
MA Zhenyu1,2,JIANG Huifei1*
|
| (1.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2.Shidao Meteorological Observator of Weihai Meteorological Bureau, Weihai 264200, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To solve the problem of temperature error caused by the simple substitution of July/January for the hottest/coldest duration in agricultural regionalization, a more accurate statistical method of temperature in the hottest/coldest month was explored. The daily temperature data of Yinchuan ground meteorological station in Ningxia Province were taken as the research object, and 31 days was set as the month-long period. This study adopted agricultural meteorological statistics method to analyze the annual change of the start and end date and temperature of the hottest/coldest month-long period. The results showed that: 1)the hottest/coldest month occurred mostly in July/January and the average temperature of the hottest/coldest temperature occurred in July/January as well. The hottest periods occurred during mid-June to late August, and the coldest months occurred during early December to mid-February. 2)From 1951 to 2019, the hottest month-long period's maximum temperature was 2. 0 ℃ higher than the maximum temperature in July and 0. 5 ℃ higher on average. The coldest month-long period's lowest temperature was 4. 6 ℃ lower than the lowest temperature in January and was 1. 1 ℃ lower on average. 3)By using the 30-year standard of WMO climate normals, with four standard periods during 1951 to 2010, the dates of the hottest/coldest month-long periods were relatively consistent, the average temperature was rising, and the coldest month-long period's average temperature was increasing at almost 3 times that of the hottest month-long period. 4)The hottest average temperature prediction reached 92. 1% accuracy and the coldest average temperature prediction had 55. 3% accuracy. Therefore, this method in the study can accurately predict the average temperature of the hottest month-long period but still needs to be improved to predict the lowest average temperature of the coldest month-long period. |
| Key words: hottest month duration coldest month duration moving average average dates of the hottest month duration average dates of the coldest month duration |
