| 摘要: |
| 为研究气候变化对河南省优质小麦种植区域的影响，基于河南省113 个气象观测站1971—2000年的历史气象数据、RCP情景模式输出的同时段模拟数据以及2001—2050年RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景数据，选取冬小麦全生育期降水量、全生育期≥0 ℃积温、3—4 月辐射总量、3—4 月雨日、5 月降水量、5 月平均气温日较差、5 月日最高气温≥32 ℃天数和5 月辐射总量等8 个气候指标来确定河南省优质小麦区划指标，结合台站经纬度和DEM信息，利用梯度距离反比法对各区划指标进行1 km网格推算，采用打分法分别确定RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2030年、2040年和2050年河南省强筋、中筋和弱筋优质小麦种植区域及面积比例。结果表明:1)在现有种植制度和品种属性不变的情况下，RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，河南省2001—2050年优质强筋小麦适宜区面积比例将从基准时段(1971—2000年)的37.2%逐渐下降到13.0%以下；2)中筋适宜区面积比例变化不大，一直维持在16.8%~22.9%；3)弱筋适宜种植区面积比例从6.1%，增加到11.6%~12.4%。综上，可通过调整播期和增强品种耐高温能力来应对未来气候变化对河南省优质小麦种植的影响。 |
| 关键词: 优质小麦 气候变化 农业气候资源 河南省 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.09.05 |
| 投稿时间：2021-02-07 |
| 基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF202018) |
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| Suitable planting region of high-quality wheat and future developing trend in Henan Province |
|
YU Weidong1,YANG Junjian2
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| (1.Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard and Applied Technique ofChina Meteorological Administration, Zhengzhou 450003, China;2.Shangqiu Meteorological Bureau, Shangqiu 476000, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To study the impact of climate change on the cultivation region of high-quality wheat in Henan Province, the historical climate data of 113 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and simulation data(1971—2050)based on regional climate model under RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 emission scenarios were used. Eight factors were selected to determine the regionalization index of high-quality wheat in Henan Province. The eight factors were precipitation during the whole growth period, degree days when daily mean temperature ≥0 ℃ during the growth period, incident solar energy flux from March to April, rain days of March and April, precipitation of May, mean diurnal temperature range of May, days of daily maximum temperature≥32 ℃ of May and incident solar energy flux of May. Combined with the longitude, latitude and DEM information of stations, 1 km grid data of each climate element was calculated by using the inverse gradient distance method. The scoring method was then used to determine the planting area and area ratio of different types of high-quality wheat in 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the scenarios of RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 in Henan Province. The results showed that: 1)On the condition that the existing cropping system and variety attributes remain unchanged, the proportion of suitable area for high-quality strong gluten wheat in Henan Province will gradually decrease from 37. 2% in the base period(1971-2000)to less than 13. 0% in 2050, under the two scenarios of RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5; 2)The proportion of suitable area of medium gluten wheat will maintain at 16. 8%~22. 9%; 3)The proportion of suitable area of weak gluten wheat will increase form 6. 1% to 11. 6%~12. 4%. In the future, the influence of climate change on cultivation region of high-quality wheat in Henan Province can be adapted by adjusting the sowing date and enhancing the high temperature resistance of wheat varieties. |
| Key words: high-quality wheat climate change agro-climate resources Henan Province |
