| 摘要: |
| 为探究中国裸燕麦种植的气候适宜性，利用MaxEnt模型，基于1991—2017年全国707个标准气象站点数据，结合裸燕麦地理分布信息，分析影响裸燕麦分布的气候指标并对裸燕麦潜在适宜区进行划分。结果表明，从16个潜在气候因子中筛选出影响裸燕麦种植分布的4个主导气候因子，分别为:年降水量、年平均最低气温、日均温≥30 ℃日数和气温年较差；其最适宜阈值分别为302.7~462.8 mm、-3.5~1.0 ℃、2.3~21.1 d和29.2~37.4 ℃。MaxEnt模型模拟裸燕麦种植的气候最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区与不适宜区面积分别为386.37×103、780.72×103、2 593.53×103和5 894.10×103 km2，分别占中国陆地总面积的4.00%、8.09%、26.86%和61.05%。中国裸燕麦种植的气候最适宜区和适宜区多数分布在华北和西北，主要包括内蒙古自治区中部、河北与山西两省的北部、宁夏回族自治区南部、甘肃省南部以及青海省中东部，另外在新疆维吾尔自治区西部和西藏自治区山南地区也有零星最适宜区分布。中国东北地区西部的适宜区面积辽阔，发展裸燕麦规模种植的潜力较高。 |
| 关键词: 裸燕麦 气候适宜性 MaxEnt模型 潜在种植分布 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.09.01 |
| 投稿时间：2020-10-11 |
| 基金项目:粮食丰产增效科技创新专项(2016YFD0300201)；国家级大学生创新训练项目(20211009004) |
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| Climatic suitability of naked oat(Avena Nuda L.)planting in China based on MaxEnt model |
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BO Xiaozhi1,SHI Xiaoyu1,ZHAO Jiongchao1,LIN Qian2,SHI Mengxia1,SHANG Mengfei1,CHU Qingquan1*
|
| (1. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology/Key Laboratory of Farming System of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2. Yantai Agricultural Extension Center, Yantai 264001, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To explore the climate suitability for naked oat cultivation in China, the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the climatic factors and to divide the potential suitable area based on the multi-year average data of 707 standard meteorological stations from 1991 to 2017 combined with the geographical distribution information of naked oat. Among 16 potential climatic factors affecting the growth, development and yield formation of naked oat, four major climatic factors affecting the distribution of naked oat were annual precipitation, annual average minimum temperature, duration days of ≥30 ℃ and annual range of air temperature. The optimum thresholds of dominant climatic factors for naked oat are 302. 7-462. 8 mm of annual precipitation, -3. 5-1. 0 ℃ of annual average minimum temperature, 2. 3-21. 1 d of duration days of ≥30 ℃ and 29. 2-37. 4 ℃ of the annual range of air temperature, respectively. The result showed that the area of the high suitable, suitable, less suitable and unsuitable areas for naked oat are 386. 37×103, 780. 72×103, 2 593. 53×103 and 5 894. 10×103 km2, respectively, accounting for 4. 00%, 8. 09%, 26. 86% and 61. 05% of the total land area of China. The optimum and suitable areas for naked oat planting are mainly distributed in North China and Northwest China, including central Inner Mongolia; the north of Hebei and Shanxi Province; the southern part of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Gansu Province; Qinghai Province except its west part; Shannan region of Tibet Autonomous Region; and sporadic distribution in western Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The suitable area in the western part of Northeast China is vast, and there is a high potential for large-scale cultivation of naked oat. |
| Key words: naked oat(Avena nuda L.) climatic suitability MaxEnt model potential cultivation distribution |
