| 摘要: |
| 为及时探讨新冠肺炎疫情对猪肉价格的短期冲击是否会演变为长期的趋势性波动。选取2020年1月20日—2020年9月30日期间新冠肺炎累计确诊人数与零售白条猪价格的日度数据，通过构建VAR模型，利用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及物理学冲击波模型共同探讨新冠肺炎疫情对猪肉价格冲击的时变特征与内在机理。结果表明:新冠肺炎疫情在10%显著性水平下是猪肉价格波动的Granger原因，而猪肉价格是新冠肺炎疫情的非Granger原因。来自新冠肺炎疫情1个标准差的正向冲击后，猪肉价格上涨幅度先快速提升，而后缓慢下跌，最后趋于稳定，呈现“倒U型”波动特征。长期来看，新冠肺炎疫情对猪肉价格冲击的贡献率近似稳定在29%。伴随疫情得到控制，未来猪肉价格主要与自身价格波动具有高度相关性(71%)。另外，延长考察期间(2019年12月2日—2020年9月30日)后发现:新冠肺炎疫情对猪肉替代品鸡肉的冲击深度与冲击广度更大，直观说明新冠肺炎疫情冲击会引发猪肉及其相关产业发展的“蝴蝶效应”。今后，各级政府在充实防疫专项资金的同时，应需进一步落实养猪补贴，拓展猪肉电商交易的线上渠道，以期提高养猪户的收入水平。 |
| 关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情 猪肉 价格冲击 VAR模型 冲击波模型 蝴蝶效应 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.07.24 |
| 投稿时间：2020-08-03 |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2662019FW018)；教育部后期资助项目(20 JHQ060)；浙江省自然科学基金一般课题(LY20G010010)；国家统计局科学研究项目(2020LY061) |
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| Impact of COVID-19 epidemic on pork price in China |
|
JIA Cheng1,2,XIA Chunping1,2*,QIN Qiongxia3
|
| (1.School of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;2.Institute of Electronic Commerce, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;3.School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou 310018, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To explore the latest information on whether the short-term effect of the COVID-19 epidemic on pork price will develop into a long-term trend fluctuation, this study selects the daily data on the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the COVID-19 and retail prices of scalded and gutted pig from January 20, 2020 to September 30, 2020. By constructing a VAR model and using Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and shock wave model, the time-varying characteristics and internal mechanism of the impact of the epidemic on pork price are explored. The results show that the COVID-19 epidemic is the Granger cause of pork price fluctuations at a significance level of 10%, and the pork price is the non-Granger cause of the COVID-19 epidemic. After a positive impact of one standard deviation from the epidemic, the pork price rose rapidly, then fell slowly, and finally stabilized. It shows an “inverted U-shaped” fluctuation characteristic during the period of the COVID-19 epidemic. In the long run, the contribution rate of the COVID-19 epidemic to the pork price shock will be approximately stable at 29%. However, with the effective control of the epidemic, the pork price will still be positively correlated with its price fluctuations(71%). Besides, after the extended inspection period from December 2, 2019 to September 30, 2020, it was discovered that the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on pork substitutes for chicken is more extraordinary in-depth and breadth. The results show that the COVID-19's effects will trigger the “butterfly effect” of meat industries. In the future, the government should replenish special funds for epidemic prevention and further implement pork subsidies and expand online channels for pork e-commerce transactions to increase pig farmers' income. |
| Key words: COVID-19 epidemic scalded and gutted pig price shock VAR model shock wave model the butterfly effect |
