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经济政策不确定性对中国粮食安全的影响
苏芳¹,刘钰¹,黄德林^2*,薛冰³,周潮⁴,马静⁵
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(1.陕西科技大学经济与管理学院, 西安 710021;2.中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所, 北京 100081;3.中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016;4.中国人民银行张掖市中心支行, 甘肃张掖 734000;5.甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院, 兰州 730070)

摘要:

为探究经济政策不确定性对中国粮食安全的影响，基于2000—2018年中国31个省(市、自治区，统计数据未含港澳台地区)的面板数据，采用PVAR模型，研究经济政策不确定性对中国粮食供给安全、获取安全、稳定性安全和资源安全的影响及区域差异。结果表明:1)总体上，经济政策不确定性对中国粮食安全具有负向影响。2)分区域看，粮食主产区的供给安全受经济政策不确定性负向影响最大，粮食主销区的获取安全受经济政策不确定性冲击最为明显，经济政策不确定性对粮食产销平衡区的冲击最小。3)从粮食安全衡量维度看，经济政策不确定性对供给安全、获取安全和资源安全具有抑制影响，对稳定性安全呈现正向冲击作用。为确保粮食安全，中国应继续加强对粮食生产政策支持、稳定国内粮食价格和健全保障粮食安全的制度机制。

关键词: 粮食安全经济政策不确定性区域差异中国

DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.07.23

投稿时间：2020-11-02

基金项目:国家社科后期资助项目(20FJYB025)；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJAZH076)；陕西省创新人才推进计划-科技创新团队(2021TD-35)；陕西省哲学社会科学重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2021ND0028)；陕西高校新型智库开放基金项目(ACNM-202201)；陕西省教育厅重点项目(20JZ026)

Impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's food security

SU Fang¹,LIU Yu¹,HUANG Delin^2*,XUE Bing³,ZHOU Chao⁴,MA Jing⁵

(1.School of Economics and Management, Shaanxi University of Science & Technology, Xi'an 710021, China;2.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;3.Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China;4.Zhangye Central Sub-Branch, The People's Bank of China, Zhangye 734000, China;5.College of Resources and Environment, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

Abstract:

To explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's food security, based on the panel data of 31 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions(the data do not include those of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions)from 2000 to 2018, PVAR model is used to study the influence and regional difference of economic policy uncertainty on China's food supply security, access security, stability security and resource security. The results show that: 1)On the whole, economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on China's food security. 2)From the aspect of region, the supply security of the main grain production area is most affected by the negative uncertainty of economic policy, and the access security of the main grain sales area is the most obvious impact by the uncertainty of economic policy. Economic policy uncertainty has the least impact on grain production and marketing balance area. 3)From the aspect of measurement dimension for food security, economic policy uncertainty displays a restraining effect on supply security, access security and resource security, and has a positive impact on stability security. In order to ensure food security, China should continue to strengthen its policy support for food production, stabilize domestic food prices and improve the institutional mechanism for ensuring food security.

Key words: food security economic policy uncertainty regional differences China