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| 基于二维信息扩散模型的收入保险费率厘定：方法与实证 |
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吴海平1,郭凤茹2,李士森3*,李晓涛2,任金政2
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| (1.河北经贸大学 财政税务学院, 石家庄 050061;2.中国农业大学 经济管理学院, 北京 100083;3.石家庄铁路职业技术学院, 石家庄 050061) |
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| 摘要: |
| 为探究小样本情况下农作物收入保险费率厘定方法，构建了非均匀布点的二维信息扩散模型，设计了利用信息扩散技术测算收入保险费率的方法和步骤，采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法验证了二维信息扩散模型的估计效率。结果表明:在小样本情况下，非均匀布点的二维信息扩散模型具有更好的估计效率，能够提高收入保险费率的估计精度；以河北省玉米收入保险为例，运用二维信息扩散模型测算出其纯费率为8.29%。本研究提出的费率厘定方法有助于提高小样本条件下的农作物收入保险费率厘定精度，有利于收入保险高质量发展。 |
| 关键词: 收入保险 二维信息扩散模型 费率厘定 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.05.21 |
| 投稿时间：2020-10-18 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873129)；河北省高等学校青年基金项目(SQ201095)；国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD0300507)；河北省人力资源社会保障研究课题(JRS-2020-2004) |
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| Calculation of revenue insurance premium rate based on two-dimension information diffusion model: Method and demonstration |
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WU Haiping1,GUO Fengru2,LI Shisen3*,LI Xiaotao2,REN Jinzheng2
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| (1.School of Finance and Taxation, Hebei University of Economics and Business, Shijiazhuang 050061, China;2.College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China;3.Shijiazhuang Institute of Railway Technical, Shijiazhuang 050061, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the method of determining crop income insurance premium rate under small sample size, this study constructs a two-dimension information diffusion model with non-uniform distributionm, and the method and steps of calculating income insurance premium rate are designed by using information diffusion technology, and the estimation efficiency of the two-dimension information diffusion model is verified by using Monte Carlo simulation method. The results show that: In the case of small sample size, the two-dimension information diffusion model with non-uniform distribution has better estimation efficiency, and can improve the estimation accuracy of income insurance rate. Taking the corn income insurance in Hebei Province as an example, the net premium rate is 8. 29% by using the two-dimension information diffusion model. In conclusion, the method proposed in this study is helpful to improve the accuracy of rate determination of crop income insurance in the case of small sample size, and is conducive to the high-quality development of income insurance. |
| Key words: revenue insurance two-dimension information diffusion model premium rate calculation |
