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| 东北地区粮食作物产量变化特征及其对气象干旱的响应研究 |
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韩冬荟1,赵金媛1,2,胡琦2,潘学标2*,王萍1,易国庆1,郭颖达1,王浩然1,和骅芸2,陈立新1
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| (1.东北林业大学 林学院, 哈尔滨 150040;2.中国农业大学 资源与环境学院, 北京 100193) |
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| 摘要: |
| 基于东北三省1961—2015年的气象数据，计算了4 个时段(雪季、雨季、生长季和年际)的标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI，同时利用HP滤波法分离了1992—2015年4 种粮食作物(水稻、玉米、大豆、小麦)的气象产量，并构建相应的标准化产量残差序列，分析东北三省不同时段的SPEI对该地区主要粮食作物气象产量的影响，结果表明1)雪季SPEI与粮食作物产量残差序列显著相关，尤其是在辽宁省更为明显；2)作物气象产量对SPEI的响应与发生区域、时段、作物品种有关，水稻的气象产量与各时段SPEI基本成负相关，大豆气象产量随生长季、年际SPEI的增大表现为先升高后降低，但小麦气象产量与SPEI的关系不甚明显。因此，在东北整体干旱化的背景下，不同时节的SPEI对各作物产量的影响并不同步，可见东北地区主要粮食作物对气象干旱的响应存在地区差异性和季节差异性。在实际工作中，应结合大尺度下的气候变化规律和局地的气候特点对农情进行分析诊断，尤其是非生长季的气象干旱应引起重视，以更全面地指导未来的农业生产决策。 |
| 关键词: 标准化降水蒸散指数 粮食作物 干旱 产量 标准化产量残差 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.03.19 |
| 投稿时间：2020-08-01 |
| 基金项目:中央高校青年教师自主创新基金项目(2572014BA13)；国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0300300)；大学生创新训练项目(201910225540) |
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| Analysis of crop yield variation characteristics in Northeast China and the response to meteorological drought |
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HAN Donghui1,ZHAO Jinyuan1,2,HU Qi2,PAN Xuebiao2*,WANG Ping1,YI Guoqing1,GUO Yingda1,WANG Haoran1,HE Huayun2,CHEN Lixin1
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| (1.School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China;2.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the meteorological data of three northeast provinces in China from 1961 to 2015, this study analyzed Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in four periods(snowy season, rainy season, growing season, annual period), and used HP filter method to capture four crop meteorological yields(rice, corn, soybean, wheat)from 1992 to 2015, then transformed them to standardized yield residuals series(Yr). Furthermore, the effects of SPEI in different periods on meteorological yields of crops in Northeast China were analyzed. The results indicated: 1)There was a significant correlation between SPEI in snowy period and standardized yield residuals series Yr, especially in Liaoning Province; 2)It suggested that different response of crop yields to SPEI depended on regions, periods and crop species. A negative correlation was discovered between rice meteorological yield and SPEI in different periods, soybean meteorological yield first increased and then decreased as SPEI increased in growing period or yearly. Under the background of general drought trend in Northeast China, the impacts of SPEI in different periods on crop yield were not uniform, which showed that there were regional and seasonal differences in response of crop yields to meteorological drought in Northeast China. Therefore, to guide future agricultural production thoroughly, it is necessary to consider not only large-scale climate change but also local climate characteristics, especially the drought in non-growing season. |
| Key words: standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index food crops drought yield standardized yield residuals |
