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| 流向统计法分析中国粮食安全状况及高标准农田需求预测 |
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王柳1,2,魏秀菊1,2*,张跃峰1,张学军1,赵爱琴2,张秋玲1,吴政文1,陈松云1
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| (1.农业农村部规划设计研究院, 北京100125;2.中国农业工程学会, 北京 100125) |
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| 摘要: |
| 加强高标准农田建设，提升国家粮食安全保障能力已经成为国家战略。为预测2020—2030年高标准农田需求量，本研究基于中国国家统计局、海关总署等相关数据，利用流向统计法从粮食、谷物和口粮自给率3个角度分析了中国粮食安全现状，并建立了预测模型，对2020、2025和2030年中国粮食、谷物和口粮的需求量进行预测；基于各省级行政区可建高标准农田面积、农业用水量、单位面积高标准农田粮食产能提高量和复种指数，预测了2020、2025和2030年保障我国粮食安全需建高标准农田面积。结果表明:1)近年来中国粮食、谷物和口粮产量呈增长趋势；1997—2018年粮食、谷物和口粮的自给率分别在86.24%~118.15%、88.67%~121.67%、84.25%~123.98%，2006年以来中国守住了“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全”的战略底线，但距《国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要》中粮食自给率95%以上的要求仍存在差距，需进一步提升国家粮食安全保障能力，增建高标准农田是保障粮食安全的重要战略；2)根据建立的模型预测2020、2025和2030年粮食需求量分别为72 318、72 673和72 724万t，谷物需求量分别为67 898、68 251和68 301万t，口粮需求量分别为32 811、33 863和34 914万t；统计检验及验证表明预测结果可信；3)2018年已建成的高标准农田已能满足我国90%的粮食自给率需求；95%自给率粮食安全条件下2020、2025和2030年分别需求6 844、7 125和7 165万hm2(10.27、10.69和10.75亿亩)的高标准农田。预测值与《乡村振兴战略规划(2018—2022年)》提出的到2022年建成10亿亩(6 667万hm2)高标准农田的指标接近，该研究结果支撑了规划指标的科学性，亦可为未来10 年我国高标准农田建设数量及进度控制提供参考，研究为宏观预测粮食及耕地需求提供了一种方法。 |
| 关键词: 粮食安全 高标准农田 自给率 谷物 预测模型 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.03.14 |
| 投稿时间：2020-11-01 |
| 基金项目:中国科技期刊卓越行动计划期刊(卓越计划-C-083)(2019—2023)(农业工程学科专业研究)；全国高标准农田建设总体规划(农业农村部2018—2020) |
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| Analysis on food security of China based on flow-statistics method and demand prediction on well-facilitated farmland |
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WANG Liu1,2,WEI Xiuju1,2*,ZHANG Yuefeng1,ZHANG Xuejun1,ZHAO Aiqin2,ZHANG Qiuling1,WU Zhengwen1,CHEN Songyun1
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| (1.Academy of Agricultural Planning and Engineering, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China;2.Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to ensure China's food security, well-facilitated farmland construction for increasing grain yield has become one of China's national strategies. The accurate estimation of well-facilitated farmland demand is necessary for scientific planning of construction in the next 10 years(2020-2030). This study aimed to predict the well-facilitated farmland construction area by using the flow statistics method based on the self-sufficiency rates of staple food grains including(grain, cereal, rice and wheat)in China. The trade flow of grain, cereal, rice and wheat was analyzed. The data were collected from China's National Bureau of Statistics, the General Administration of Customs and the United States Department of Agriculture. Self-sufficiency rates of grain, cereal, rice and wheat were calculated. Regression models were established to forecast the domestic utilization of grain, cereal, rice and wheat in 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively. Before model establishment, data of rice and wheat(RW)were added up and the time series of grain, cereal and RW during the period of 1997-2018 were tested whether they are stationary or not. The non-stationary data were used for model establishment. The restrictions of the area of well-facilitated farmland and the fresh water in each province were analyzed and the grain production capacity of well-facilitated farmland per unit area in different regions was calculated. The multiple cropping index was calculated according to the proportion of farmland area in different cropping system zone. Based on these indexes, the areas of well-facilitated farmland needed to ensure food security in China in the next 10 years in different self-sufficiency rate of grain were estimated. The results showed that: 1)the self-sufficiency rates of grain, cereal, rice and wheat in China from 1997 to 2018 were 86. 24%-118. 15%, 88. 67%-121. 67% and 84. 25%-123. 98%, respectively. Since 2006, China had kept the strategic bottom line of “basic self-sufficiency of cereal and absolute security of rice and wheat”, but the self-sufficiency rate of grain was relatively lower than the 95% required by “National Food Security In the Long-term Planning Outline”. It was necessary to further enhance the national food security capability and the construction of well-facilitated farmland is an important strategy to ensure food security; 2)Based on the models, the grain domestic utilization in 2020, 2025 and 2030 would reach 723. 18, 726. 73 and 727. 24 million tons, the cereal domestic utilization would be 678. 98, 682. 51 and 683. 01 million tons, and the rice and wheat domestic utilization would be 328. 11, 338. 63 and 349. 14 million tons, respectively. The statistical test and verification proved that the prediction results were reliable; 3)Based on the meeting to food demand by the increase of well-facilitated farmland, the well-facilitated farmland constructed by 2018 could meet the demand under the condition of 90% self-sufficiency rate. Because the current self-sufficiency rate is under the condition of 95%, more than 68. 44, 71. 25 and 71. 65 million hectares well-facilitated farmland should be built by 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively. In conclusion, this study can provide reference to plan the schedule of well-facilitated farmland construction in the future. |
| Key words: food security well-facilitated farmland self-sufficiency rate cereal prediction model |
