| 摘要: |
| 为分析山地丘陵区土地利用格局演变规律，以山西省晋城市为例，从地球系统科学的视角出发，通过改进后的CLUE-S模型对晋城市2010—2017年、2017—2024年2 个阶段的土地利用格局演变进行模拟。结果表明:1)在验证阶段，使用Auto-Logistic回归改进的CLUE-S模型能够较好的模拟晋城市土地利用覆被变化，各土地利用类型AUC值基本>0.8，对比2017年实际土地利用现状，全局Kappa系数值为0.71，总体上可用于模型模拟预测；2)在模拟阶段，综合考虑自然、社会、经济要素，对比规划与生态保护情景，2024年晋城市土地利用格局在空间上呈竞争关系。在“规划”情景下，当地城市、农业、生态均衡发展；“生态保护”情景下社会经济发展较为缓慢，但生态用地占比较大；3)分析不同情景下晋城市14 年间土地利用覆被变化，总体趋势为东西部山区由草地转为林地，中部丘陵平原区由耕地转为林地。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用 CLUE-S改进模型 地球系统理论 格局演变模拟 山地丘陵区 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2021.01.13 |
| 投稿时间：2020-06-07 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41877532) |
|
| Simulation of land use pattern evolution in mountainous and hilly areas: A case study of Jincheng in China |
|
XU Hongtao1,TIAN Yi1,2*,LIU Shidong1
|
| (1.School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China;2.Beijing Key Laboratory of the Natural Resources Information Research and Exploration, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To analyze the evolution of land use pattern in mountainous and hilly areas, from the perspective of earth system science, an improved CLUE-S model is adopted to simulate the evolution of land use patterns during 2010-2017 and 2017-2024 by taking Jincheng, Shanxi Province, China as a study case. The results show that: 1)At the test stage, the improved CLUE-S model of Auto-Logistic regression can better simulate the change of land use types in Jincheng. The AUC values were greater than 0. 8 in general. The simulation results compared with the actual land use pattern in 2017, the global Kappa value was 0. 71, which can be used for the forecast demand; 2)At the simulation stage, comprehensive consideration of natural, social, and economic factors, comparing the planning with the ecological protection scenario, the land use patterns were found to be spatially competitive. Under “planning scenario”, the development of cities, agriculture, and ecology was balanced; In “ecological protection scenario”, social and economic development was relatively slow, but the proportion of ecological land was higher; 3)In general, the analysis of land use cover change under two different scenarios in 14 years, the mountainous area in the east and west were converted from grass land to forest, the hilly and plains in the central part of the area converted from farmland to forest. |
| Key words: land use improved CLUE-S model earth system theory pattern evolution simulation mountainous and hilly areas |
