| 摘要: |
| 利用2000—2017年猪肉、禽肉、牛肉和羊肉主产省份产量、价格等面板数据和Nerlove模型，估计并对比了各种肉类的短期和长期供给弹性；研究了畜禽禁养政策对不同肉类供给的影响及差异。结果表明:1)猪肉、禽肉、牛肉和羊肉短期内供给均缺乏弹性，长期内供给均富有弹性；2)4种肉类中，禽肉短期供给弹性最大，其次为猪肉，牛肉短期供给弹性最小；3)猪肉、禽肉、牛肉和羊肉并不互为供给替代品，即某一种肉类产品产量直接受其他肉类价格变化影响不显著；4)猪肉、禽肉和牛肉供给均受畜禽禁养政策影响显著，其中禽肉供给受畜禽禁养政策影响最大，猪肉次之，牛肉最小，而羊肉产量受畜禽禁养政策影响不显著。在研究结论的基础上，提出政策建议:长期内制定扶持政策促进畜牧业生产，短期内加强畜禽生产监测；当肉类价格发生变化时，针对不同肉类采取不同稳定供给措施；完善畜禽禁养政策，实现保环境与保供给双赢。 |
| 关键词: 肉类供给 产品异质性 畜禽禁养政策 Nerlove模型 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2020.10.17 |
| 投稿时间：2020-02-13 |
| 基金项目:国家绒毛用羊产业技术体系产业经济研究(CARS-39-22) |
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| China's meat supply response under livestock and poultry confinement policy: An empirical analysis based on product heterogeneity |
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KANG Haiqi,XIAO Haifeng
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| (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Based on the panel data of the main provinces producing pork, poultry, beef and mutton from 2000 to 2017, the short-term and long-term supply elasticities of various meats are estimated and compared by Nerlove model. In addition, the influence and difference of livestock and poultry prohibition policy on different meat supply were also studied. It is found that the short-term supply elasticity of pork, poultry, beef and mutton is lack of elasticity, but in the long run they are full of elasticity. Moreover, among the four kinds of meat, the short-term supply elasticity of poultry is the largest, followed by pork, and the short-term supply elasticity of beef is the smallest. The results also suggests that pork, poultry, beef and mutton are not substitutes for each other, that is to say, the output of one meat product is not significantly affected by other meat price changes. In addition, the supply of pork, poultry and beef is significantly affected by the policy of banning livestock and poultry, of which the supply of poultry is the most affected, followed by pork and beef. The output of mutton is not significantly affected. On the basis of above results, this study puts forward some policy suggestions, such as formulating supporting policies to promote the production of animal husbandry in the long term, and strengthening the monitoring of animal production in the short term. Furthermore, different measures should be taken to stabilize the supply of different kinds of meat, improve the policy of banning livestock and poultry, balancing the environment and supply in case of the change of meat prices. |
| Key words: the supply of meat product heterogeneity policy of prohibiting livestock and poultry production Nerlove model |
