| 摘要: |
| 采用1 667个农户实地调查数据，运用内生变量归并模型(IVTobit)和无条件分位数回归(UQR)探究农业机械化对农户主粮种植面积的影响。结果表明:1)农业机械化对农户主粮种植面积存在显著的正向影响，但对不同类型主粮种植面积的影响有所差异，影响效果从大到小依次是马铃薯、水稻、玉米和小麦。2)农业机械化对各类型主粮种植面积的影响存在规模报酬递增倾向，即农业机械化对不同类型主粮种植面积的影响随着分位点的提高而不断增加。3)从作用机制分析可知，农业机械是通过替代成本相对较高的农业劳动力，降低主粮生产成本，进而诱致农户扩大粮食种植面积。建议进一步培育具有国际竞争力的农机装备生产企业，深入推进地块“宜机化”改造，切实降低农机作业成本和增加主粮收益率，从而提高农户主粮种植积极性，保障国家粮食安全。 |
| 关键词: 农业机械化 农户 主粮种植面积 内生变量归并模型 无条件分位数回归 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2020.09.22 |
| 投稿时间：2019-12-13 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社科项目(20YJC790103)；江西省教育厅科技研究项目(GJJ190282)；江西省博士后科研项目(2019KY33)；江西省教育科学“十三五”规划重点项目(20ZD026)；南昌市社会科学“十三五”规划项目(YJ201906) |
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| Influence of agricultural machinery on the planting area of farmers' main grains |
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PENG Jiquan,ZHANG Liguo
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| (School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To explore the impact of agricultural machinery on farmers' main grain acreage, 1 667 farmer field survey data are taking as study case, and the endogenous variable merging model(IVTobit)and unconditional quantile regression(UQR)are used. The results are as follows: 1)Agricultural mechanization has a significant positive impact on the area of staple food planted by farmers, but it has a different impact on the area of staple food planted by different types. The impacts in descending order are potato, rice, corn and wheat. 2)The impact of agricultural mechanization on the planting area of different types of staple grains has a tendency to increase in scale, and the impact of agricultural mechanization on the planting area of different types of staple grains increased with the increase of the quantile. 3)It is recommended to further cultivate agricultural machinery and equipment manufacturing enterprises with international competitiveness, and promote the “Appropriate mechanization” of the field further to effectively reduce the cost of agricultural machinery operations and increase the yield of staple food and increase the enthusiasm of farmers to grow staple food and ensure national food security. |
| Key words: agricultural mechanization farmers grain planting area IV Tobit unconditional quantile regression |
