| 摘要: |
| 为研究气候变化及人类活动对植被的影响，本研究通过趋势分析探究黄土高原地区植被的时空变化，结合Hurst指数法以研究黄土高原植被的可持续性，采用相关分析和多元回归分析、残差分析等方法，探讨气候变化和人类活动对区域植被变化的影响。结果表明:1)黄土高原的植被在空间上由东南向西北呈现递减趋势，1982—2015年NDVI变化总体上呈弱上升趋势，2000年是NDVI时间序列的转折点，NDVI上升速度加快；2)Hurst指数表明研究区NDVI的未来变化趋势呈现持续性和反持续性的区域分别占13.70%和86.30%；3)相关分析和偏相关分析表明平均温度和降水对黄土高原NDVI均有显著影响，并且平均温度和降水对NDVI的综合影响更加明显；4)根据残差分析发现人类活动对植被的变化也有影响，改善和破坏作用并存。因此，1982—2015年黄土高原植被变化是气候变化和人类活动共同作用的结果，其中主要影响因素为人类活动，黄土高原地区气候因子对植被恢复的贡献率4.56%，非气象因子(人类活动)对植被恢复的贡献率为32.74%。 |
| 关键词: 黄土高原 NDVI 趋势分析 人类活动 气候因子 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2020.08.12 |
| 投稿时间：2020-01-25 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41701507) |
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| Spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation change and driving forces in the Loess Plateau |
|
DONG Yi1,YIN Dongqin1,LI Yuan1,YAN Tailai1,WANG Hongshuo1,2*
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| (1.College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China;2.Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing for Agri-Hazards of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| To study the effects of vegetation temporal and spatial changes, climate change and human activities on vegetation changes, the spatial and temporal changes of vegetation and climate factors on the Loess Plateau were investigated by the time-section difference analysis and trend analysis methods. Hurst index was used to explore the sustainability of the NDVI pattern in the study area. In addition, the correlation analysis and multiple regression residual analysis were also used to explore the contribution of climate change and human activities on regional vegetation changes. The results showed that: 1)The vegetation cover was high in southeast but low in northwest of the study area. There was a slight increase of the NDVI during 1982-2015, with a breakpoint in year 2000 showing a rapid increase of the NDVI after 2000; 2)The Hurst index results indicated that the persistent and anti-persistent regions of the NDVI trend in the future were 13. 70% and 86. 30%, respectively; 3)Based on the correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis, further study showed that temperature and precipitation both had significant influence on the NDVI, and the combined impact of the two factors was even stronger; 4)Based on the residual analysis, the human activities were also shown to have impact(either positive or negative)on vegetation changes. Overall, both the climate change and human activities affected the vegetation changes on the Loess Plateau from 1982 to 2015, and the major impact factor was human activities. The contributions of climate factors(temperature and precipitation)on vegetation change and the non-meteorological factors(mainly referring to human activities)were 4. 56% and 32. 74%, respectively. |
| Key words: the Loess Plateau NDVI human activities trend analysis meteorological factors |
