| 摘要: |
| 为研究城镇化对化肥面源污染的影响，利用中国31省(市、自治区)2000—2016年面板数据(统计数据未含港澳台地区，下同)，采用门槛回归模型和空间杜宾模型，探讨了城镇化对化肥面源污染的门槛效应和空间溢出，结果表明:化肥面源污染表现出从东部向中西部转移的动态演进轨迹。城镇化对化肥面源污染的影响具有单一门槛效应:伴随着人均收入跨越各省份的门槛值，城镇化对化肥面源污染的影响由扩张效应主导转变为质量效应主导，即从促进转变为抑制。城镇化对化肥面源污染的影响具有明显的空间溢出，且空间溢出远大于城镇化对本省份造成的直接影响，城镇化的快速推进可能将化肥面源污染“转嫁”给邻近省份。 |
| 关键词: 城镇化 化肥面源污染 门槛效应 空间溢出 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2020.05.18 |
| 投稿时间：2019-08-02 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目(17AJY019) |
|
| Does urbanization intensify chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution: Based on threshold effects and spatial spillovers |
|
LUAN Jian,HAN Yijun
|
| (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Threshold model and spatial durbin model were used in this study to explore the threshold effects and spatial spillovers of urbanization on chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution based on a panel data of 31 provinces from 2000-2016(the statistic data of Hongkong. Macao, Taiwan Region are not included, the same below. ). The results showed that the chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution showed a dynamic evolution that was transferred from the east to the west. The impacts of urbanization on chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution displayed single threshold effect. When the income per capita was reaching threshold value, the impacts of urbanization on chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution changed from expansion effects to quality effects, namely, from promoting to restraining. The impacts of urbanization on chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution showed great spillover effects, which was larger than the direct effects caused by urbanization to the province itself. The rapid development of urbanization in one province might cause chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution to be passed on to its neighboring provinces. |
| Key words: urbanization chemical fertilizer non-point source pollution threshold effects spatial spillovers |
