| 摘要: |
| 为探索实时监测耕地产能和估算耕地粮食产量的可靠手段，对山东省省级尺度的耕地产能进行估算，并分析其耕地NPP(Net Primary Productivity)和产能的时空分布特征和动态变化状况，采用MODIS遥感数据、土地利用数据和其他非遥感数据驱动VPM模型模拟出山东省耕地NPP，通过耕地NPP与耕地作物单产之间的线性关系，利用线性回归模型拟合两者之间的数量关系，实现耕地NPP到耕地产能的转换，并评价2000—2015年山东省耕地产能的时空分布和动态变化特征。主要结论如下:1)2000—2015年山东省耕地NPP均值和总量均呈波动上升趋势，其中黄淮平原南阳盆地两熟区耕地生产力均值在4个农业区划中最高，菏泽、聊城、德州和济宁市的耕地NPP均值在17个地级市中属较高水平。2)利用VPM模型计算2000—2015年山东省耕地总体产能，结果表明总产能呈上升趋势，耕地产能>14 000 kg/hm2的耕地明显增多，<12 000 kg/hm2的耕地面积逐渐减少，鲁西南平原、鲁西北平原、潍坊东部、青岛中部地区的耕地产能较高，山东半岛丘陵区、鲁中南山地区的耕地产能次之，黄河三角洲周围的沿海地区耕地产能最低。 |
| 关键词: NPP 耕地产能 VPM模型 农业综合开发 时空格局 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2020.03.15 |
| 投稿时间：2019-04-14 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发(2019YFC0409102)；国家自然科学基金(Y9E2011001) |
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| Spatial and temporal pattern of cultivated land productivity in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015 |
|
WANG Hebin1,2,WANG Wenjuan1*,SHANG Lingjie3
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| (1.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3.College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the reliable means of real-time monitoring of cultivated land productivity and estimate the yield of cultivated land and the cultivated land productivity at the provincial scale, and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and dynamic changes of NPP(Net Primary Productivity)and production capacity, MODIS Remote sensing data, land use data and other non-remote sensing data-driven VPM models were used to simulate the NPP of cultivated land in Shandong Province. Based on the linear relationship between cultivated land NPP and cultivated crop yield, a linear regression model was used to fit the quantitative relationship between the two to realize the transfer from cultivated land NPP to production capacity. The conversion of NPP to cultivated land productivity, and the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamic characteristics of cultivated land productivity in Shandong Province were evaluated. The main conclusions were as follows: 1)From 2000 to 2015, the average value and total amount of cultivated land NPP in Shandong Province showed a fluctuating upward trend. The average value of cultivated land productivity in the two mature areas of Nanyang Basin in Huanghuai Plain was the highest among the four agricultural divisions, Heze, Liaocheng, Dezhou and Jining. The average NPP of cultivated land in these cities are the highest among the 17 cities. 2)The results by VPM model calculation capacity showed that the total production capacity was on the rise, and the cultivated land with the cultivated land productivity was greater than 14 000 kg/hm2, which was obviously increased. The cultivated land area was less than 12 000 kg/hm2, which was in decrease gradually. The cultivated land productivities of the southwestern plains of Shandong, the northwestern plains of Shandong, the eastern part of Weifang, and the central part of Qingdao were relatively high. The cultivated land capacities in the hilly areas of Shandong Peninsula and the Nanshan area of Shandong Province were in second, and the cultivated land productivity around the Yellow River Delta was the lowest. |
| Key words: NPP farmland productivity VPM model comprehensive agricultural development spatial and temporal patter |
