| 摘要: |
| 为引导蛋鸡养殖户实施多元化销售策略，提高养殖规模化水平，依循"风险感知-多元化销售策略决策-蛋鸡养殖规模"的逻辑主线，基于国家蛋鸡产业技术体系在5个鸡蛋主产省的调查数据，利用修正选择性偏误的内生转换回归模型，同时估计了蛋鸡养殖户实施多元化销售策略的选择行为和蛋鸡养殖规模方程。结果表明：实施多元化销售策略的蛋鸡养殖规模扩大效应显著，能够使蛋鸡养殖规模平均扩大约2 839只。养殖收入占家庭总收入比越大、文化程度越高、非独立经营、市场风险感知能力越强和年轻的蛋鸡养殖户更倾向于实施多元化销售策略。 |
| 关键词: 风险感知 多元化销售策略决策 蛋鸡养殖规模 内生转换回归模型 平均处理效应 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2019.11.25 |
| 投稿时间：2019-01-10 |
| 基金项目:现代农业产业技术体系建设专项（CARS-40-K28）；国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFD0501305）；中央级公益性科研院所基本业务费专项（161005201901-4-7）；中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目（CAAS-ASTIP-IAED-2018-04） |
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| Risk perception,diversified marketing strategy decision and the scale of laying hens |
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ZHU Yiming1, LI Shasha2, ZHU Ning2, MA Ji1
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| (1.College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083;2.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081) |
| Abstract: |
| To raise scale level of laying hens through implementing diversified marketing strategy,following a logical main line of "risk perception-diversified marketing strategy decision-scale of laying hens",this context bases on the survey data of 5 major egg producing provinces from National System for Layer Production Technology and adopts endogenous switching regression model with modified selectivity to estimate the layer farmers' selection behavior of implementing diversified marketing strategy and the breeding scale equation of laying hens.The results reflect that the scale-up effect of laying hens with diversified sales strategy is significant,enabling average scale of laying hens to 2 839.The higher the ratio of farming income to total household income,the higher education level and degree of non-independent operation,the stronger the market risk perception ability and the younger layer farmers are more inclined to implement diversified marketing strategies. |
| Key words: risk perception diversified marketing strategy decision layer cultivation scale endogenous switching regression model average treatment effect |
