| 摘要: |
| 为了解我国羊肉价格的变动是否存在空间效应，基于2001-2016年省际面板数据，从地理学角度出发进行了空间相关性检验，并进一步利用杜宾空间模型对我国羊肉价格的长期趋势变动和周期循环变动进行了实证检验。研究发现，我国羊肉价格不是简单随机分布，而是有着明显的空间集聚特征。杜宾空间模型的回归结果表明羊肉价格及其变动除了受本区域相关因素的影响，也会对邻域羊肉价格产生正向溢出效应，并且随时间迁移呈现不断加强趋势。空间分解效应表明，羊肉产量、牛肉价格、猪肉价格和购买力可以有效影响羊肉价格的长期趋势变动，而羊肉价格的周期循环变动仅与模型中的牛肉价格和购买力相关。 |
| 关键词: 羊肉 价格变动 空间效应 分解效应 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2019.11.23 |
| 投稿时间：2018-11-17 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（71573257）；国家现代肉羊产业技术体系（CARS38） |
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| Spatial effect of sheep and goat meat price fluctuation in China |
|
GAO Xiang, NIE Yunbin, LI Binglong
|
| (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to clarify whether there is a spatial effect of sheep and goat meat price fluctuation in China,based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2001 to 2016,a spatial correlation test is conducted from the perspective of geography.An empirical test is carried out on the long-term trend change and cycle change of sheep and goat meat price in China by using the Spatial Durbin model.It is found that sheep and goat meat price in China is not simply randomly distributed and it has obvious spatial clustering characteristics.The regression results of the Spatial Durbin Model show that sheep and goat meat price and its changes are not only affected by the relevant factors in the region,but also have a positive spillover effect on neighboring sheep and goat meat price.At the same time,spillover effect shows an increasing trend over time.The spatial decomposition effect shows that production of sheep and goat meat,beef price,pork price and purchasing power can effectively influence the long-term trend change of sheep and goat meat price.The cyclical change of sheep and goat meat price is only related to the beef price and purchasing power in the model. |
| Key words: sheep and goat meat price fluctuation spatial effect decomposition effect |
